Millonarios vs Atlético Bucaramanga: match statistics
Millonarios vs Atlético Bucaramanga: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Millonarios played Atlético Bucaramanga in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 25 July 2026. Venue: Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Millonarios: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Atlético Bucaramanga: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Millonarios scores 1.63 and concedes 1.21 goals per match. Atlético Bucaramanga scores 1.37 and concedes 1.05. League average: 2.53 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Millonarios 63%, Atlético Bucaramanga 47%. Over 2.5: Millonarios 63%, Atlético Bucaramanga 53%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Millonarios has higher xG: 1.60 vs 1.41. Millonarios: 15.7 shots per match, Atlético Bucaramanga: 13.3.
Match halves
Millonarios: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.95. Atlético Bucaramanga: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.68.
Goals by minute
Millonarios: 46-60 (10 goals). Atlético Bucaramanga: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.53 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 2.33, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Millonarios holds a clear home advantage — the hosts average 1.9 goals per home game with xG 1.7, while Atlético Bucaramanga scores just 0.7 goals on the road with xG 1.3. Defensively Millonarios also performs better: they concede 0.7 goals per home match with average xG against 0.94, whereas the visitors concede 1.4 goals away with xG against 1.22. In offensive phases the hosts average 16.8 shots and 5.8 on target per home game, with a conversion rate of 11%, while Bucaramanga posts 12.5 shots, 3.7 on target and only 6% conversion; additionally the visitors fail to score in 50% of away matches versus 10% for the hosts. Trends from the last five games reinforce this view: Millonarios scored 15 goals in their last five matches and average 1.6 points per game, plus a home goal difference of +12; Bucaramanga scored 10 goals in five and average 1.2 points per game with a negative away goal difference of -7. For these reasons I back a Millonarios win, estimating the probability at 65% for a home win, 20% for a draw and 15% for an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Millonarios averages 2.11 goals per match this season, while Atlético Bucaramanga averages only 0.7; however, in the last 5 fixtures Millonarios raised that to 3.0 and Bucaramanga to 2.0, increasing the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Season BTTS rates are 44% for Millonarios and 50% for Bucaramanga, versus a league average of 53%, while in the last 5 matches Millonarios had BTTS at 100% and Bucaramanga 60% — a strong signal in favor of both teams scoring. Against this, Millonarios have kept a clean sheet in 56% of matches this season and concede just 0.67 goals seasonally, whereas Bucaramanga scores 0.7 goals seasonally, indicating the home side often closes out opponents without conceding. xG and shooting data show a mixed picture: Millonarios have 1.52 xG and 4.56 shots on target per match versus 1.3 xG and 3.7 shots on target for Bucaramanga, and over the last 5 matches xG was 2.08 versus 1.66, so both sides are creating chances. Considering the dominant signal from the last 5 matches (100% BTTS for Millonarios), the moderately high league average of 53% and the offensive activity of both teams in form, I tip BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 65% versus 35% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Millonarios scores an average of 2.11 goals per match this season with xG 1.52, while Atlético Bucaramanga scores 0.70 goals per match with xG 1.30; Bucaramanga’s defense concedes on average 1.40 goals, and Millonarios’ defense 0.67. Averaging the home attack (xG 1.52) and the away defense (xG against 1.22) yields expected goals for Millonarios of 1.37, and for Bucaramanga (xG 1.30 and home defense 0.82) 1.06, producing a total of 2.43 goals. A Poisson distribution for a sum of 2.43 gives probability of Over 1.5 goals ~70%, Over 2.5 ~44% and Over 3.5 ~23%. Additionally, the hosts have a shot conversion rate of 15% versus the visitors’ 6% and 78% of their matches end Over 1.5 goals, while in the last 5 fixtures Millonarios averaged 3.0 goals, which strengthens the signal for the shorter over. Based on this, the strongest and most reliable pick is Over 1.5 (over), which combines high probability (approx. 70%) with confirmation in form and efficiency.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Millonarios look significantly stronger in the data: average goals per season 2.11 versus 0.7 for Atlético Bucaramanga, xG 1.52 versus 1.3 and shot conversion 15% versus 6%, indicating greater offensive efficiency for the hosts. At Half-Time Millonarios lead in 33% of matches and are level in 56% (the visitors lead only in 11%), so the most common half-time state is a draw. In the second half the hosts score on average 1.11 goals and concede only 0.22 per home match, and in their last 5 appearances they have averaged 1.6 goals after the break, which suggests they can turn the result in their favor after the interval. Since Millonarios win 44% of matches and keep a clean sheet in 56% of the season (visitors: 10% wins and 20% clean sheets), the strongest signal is a draw at Half-Time and a home win Full-Time (X/1), which I assign a 28% probability.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Millonarios | Atlético Bucaramanga | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Millonarios is 25% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Millonarios · 0.8 pts / match - Atlético Bucaramanga
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Millonarios is 19% better for: goals scored per match.
1.63 goals / match - Millonarios · 1.37 goals / match - Atlético Bucaramanga
Atlético Bucaramanga is 15% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.21 goals / match - Millonarios · 1.05 goals / match - Atlético Bucaramanga
Millonarios scores in 84% of matches (16 of 19 matches), while Atlético Bucaramanga keeps a clean sheet in 37% (7 of 19 matches).
Atlético Bucaramanga scores in 63% of matches (12 of 19 matches), while Millonarios keeps a clean sheet in 32% (6 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Millonarios
Over / Under - Atlético Bucaramanga
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Millonarios is 32% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.53 pts / match - Millonarios · 1.16 pts / match - Atlético Bucaramanga
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Millonarios - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Atlético Bucaramanga - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Millonarios
Atlético Bucaramanga
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Millonarios | Liga | Atlético Bucaramanga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.84 | 2.53 | ▼ 2.42 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 53% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 63% | 47% | ▲ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 27% | ▲ 37% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 70% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 84% | 79% | ▼ 68% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Atlético BucaramangaSubstitutionOn: Enmerson Manuel Batalla MartínezOff: Jhon Fredy Salazar Valencia
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Millonarios 1 - 1 - 1 Atlético Bucaramanga. Average goals 2.33, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Millonarios vs Atlético Bucaramanga?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Millonarios 0:1 Atlético Bucaramanga. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Millonarios and Atlético Bucaramanga?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Millonarios won 1, Atlético Bucaramanga won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Millonarios vs Atlético Bucaramanga?
Millonarios score 1.63 goals per game on average and Atlético Bucaramanga 1.37. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.53 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Millonarios's matches and 47% of Atlético Bucaramanga's.
What form are Millonarios and Atlético Bucaramanga in?
Over the last 5 games Millonarios have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Atlético Bucaramanga 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Millonarios vs Atlético Bucaramanga?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Millonarios vs Atlético Bucaramanga: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.