Millonarios vs Atlético Nacional: match statistics
Millonarios displays impressive home form with a 67% win rate and a streak of four consecutive victories at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 1.83 goals per home match while conceding only 0.67, resulting in a home goal difference of +7. Despite having a better overall record (8 wins), Atlético Nacional struggles away from home – suffering 40% defeats and failing to score in as many as 40% of their away matches. The recent form of both teams is identical (1.8 points per match over the last 5 games); however, Millonarios' home fortress advantage combined with the visitors' weaker away statistics favors the hosts. A closely contested match is expected with a slight edge for the home side, hence a relatively high probability of a draw.
Millonarios vs Atlético Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Millonarios played Atlético Nacional in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 18 March 2026. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Millonarios: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Atlético Nacional: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Millonarios scores 1.45 and concedes 1.18 goals per match. Atlético Nacional scores 2.30 and concedes 0.60. League average: 2.58 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Millonarios 64%, Atlético Nacional 40%. Over 2.5: Millonarios 64%, Atlético Nacional 70%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Atlético Nacional has higher xG: 1.70 vs 1.49. Millonarios: 15.4 shots per match, Atlético Nacional: 16.1.
Match halves
Millonarios: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.73. Atlético Nacional: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.60.
Goals by minute
Millonarios: 46-60 (6 goals). Atlético Nacional: 61-75 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.58 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 1-2-1. Average goals 0.75, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Millonarios displays impressive home form with a 67% win rate and a streak of four consecutive victories at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 1.83 goals per home match while conceding only 0.67, resulting in a home goal difference of +7. Despite having a better overall record (8 wins), Atlético Nacional struggles away from home – suffering 40% defeats and failing to score in as many as 40% of their away matches. The recent form of both teams is identical (1.8 points per match over the last 5 games); however, Millonarios' home fortress advantage combined with the visitors' weaker away statistics favors the hosts. A closely contested match is expected with a slight edge for the home side, hence a relatively high probability of a draw.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Millonarios | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlético Nacional is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Millonarios · 2.4 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Nacional is 59% better for: goals scored per match.
1.45 goals / match - Millonarios · 2.3 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Atlético Nacional is 97% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.18 goals / match - Millonarios · 0.6 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Millonarios scores in 82% of matches (9 of 11 matches), while Atlético Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 40% (4 of 10 matches).
Atlético Nacional scores in 80% of matches (8 of 10 matches), while Millonarios keeps a clean sheet in 36% (4 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Millonarios
Over / Under - Atlético Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atlético Nacional is 32% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.36 pts / match - Millonarios · 1.8 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Millonarios - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Atlético Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 80%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +7 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Millonarios
Atlético Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Millonarios | Liga | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.64 | 2.58 | ▲ 2.90 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 58% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 64% | 51% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 25% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 55% | 68% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 80% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Millonarios 1 - 2 - 1 Atlético Nacional. Average goals 0.75, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Millonarios vs Atlético Nacional?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Millonarios 3:0 Atlético Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Millonarios and Atlético Nacional?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Millonarios won 1, Atlético Nacional won 1 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 0.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Millonarios vs Atlético Nacional?
Millonarios score 1.45 goals per game on average and Atlético Nacional 2.30. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.58 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Millonarios's matches and 40% of Atlético Nacional's.
What form are Millonarios and Atlético Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Millonarios have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Atlético Nacional 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Millonarios vs Atlético Nacional?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.