Millonarios vs Santa Fe: match statistics
Millonarios vs Santa Fe: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Millonarios played Santa Fe in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 12 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Millonarios: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Santa Fe: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Millonarios scores 1.67 and concedes 1.13 goals per match. Santa Fe scores 1.20 and concedes 1.27. League average: 2.49 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Millonarios 60%, Santa Fe 80%. Over 2.5: Millonarios 67%, Santa Fe 47%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Millonarios has higher xG: 1.59 vs 1.44. Millonarios: 16.0 shots per match, Santa Fe: 13.5.
Match halves
Millonarios: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.87. Santa Fe: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Millonarios: 46-60 (7 goals). Santa Fe: 31-45+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.49 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 6 previous H2H matches were available: 3-1-2. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Millonarios are the favourites based on strong home metrics: they win 63% of home matches, score an average of 2.0 goals per game and have a home offensive xG of 1.70, while Santa Fe average 1.13 goals away with an offensive xG of 1.34. Defensively the hosts concede only 0.75 goals per home game with an average xG against of 0.91, whereas the visitors concede 1.25 goals on the road with an xG against of 1.45, which gives Millonarios a clear defensive edge. Millonarios also register more shots and shots on target at home (avg. 17 shots and 5.75 on target) versus Santa Fe away (12.88 shots and 4.5 on target) and display a higher shooting conversion rate of 12% compared to 9%. Both teams show similar recent form over the last five matches in terms of points per game (Millonarios 1.4 ppg, Santa Fe 1.6 ppg), however Santa Fe draw frequently on the road (50% draws), which increases the likelihood of a shared result. Based on the hosts’ offensive and defensive advantage I forecast a Millonarios victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The BTTS (Both Teams To Score) scenario is strong: Millonarios has a season BTTS rate of 86% and Santa Fe 75%, averaging around 80% versus the league average of 56%. In the last 5 matches there is a divergence — Millonarios has only 40% BTTS while Santa Fe has 80% — however both teams still score and concede: Millonarios averages 1.8 GF and 1.2 GA, Santa Fe averages 1.4 GF and 1.2 GA. xG confirms offensive potential — combined xG is 1.56 + 1.34 = 2.90, with Millonarios’ xG against at 0.98 and Santa Fe’s xG against at 1.45, so both sides create scoring opportunities. Additionally Millonarios has no clean sheets (0%) and records 5.71 shots on target per game, while Santa Fe has 13% clean sheets and 4.5 shots on target; season goal totals are 25 (Millonarios) and 18 (Santa Fe), which supports goal exchange. Considering the seasonal 86% vs 75%, combined xG 2.90 and the home side’s lack of clean sheets, I assess BTTS probability at 78% (Yes) and 22% (No).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG: Millonarios has xG_for 1.56, Santa Fe xG_for 1.34, and xG_against of 0.98 (Millonarios) and 1.45 (Santa Fe), yielding expected goals ~1.51 for the home side and ~1.16 for the away side, totaling 2.67. Season share of matches with ≥2 goals is 86% for Millonarios and 75% for Santa Fe (avg ~81%), BTTS rates are 86% and 75%, and in the last 5 matches the teams scored 9 and 7 goals (1.8 and 1.4 avg), i.e. 3.2 goals per game combined, which strengthens the signal for Over 1.5. A Poisson distribution with mean 2.67 gives roughly a 50% probability of ≥3 goals (Over 2.5), consistent with season Over2.5 of 57%/38% (avg 47.5%) and recent form at 60%, therefore I assess Over 2.5 at ~52%. The chance of ≥4 goals (Over 3.5) by Poisson is ~28%, while season Over3.5 is 14%/25% (avg 19.5%), so Under 3.5 looks the safer choice. In summary, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (rating 84%), hence the recommendation to back Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Millonarios have the advantage in xG and chance creation: xG_for 1.56 versus 1.34 for Santa Fe and an average of 5.71 shots on target versus 4.5 for the visitors, which increases their likelihood of taking the initiative. Their defence also performs better (home xG against 0.98 vs 1.45 for Santa Fe), and Millonarios led at the break in 43% of matches compared to 25% for the visitors, so a home lead at half-time is relatively likely. In the second half the hosts score an average of 0.71 goals versus 0.63 for the visitors, and in the last five matches Millonarios have averaged 1.8 goals compared to 1.4 for Santa Fe, which raises the chance of holding on to a win after the break. At the same time, the high BTTS rates (86% for the hosts, 75% for the visitors) and a large share of draws this season (43% for the hosts, 50% for the visitors) keep a significant proportion of draw scenarios, so the probability distribution includes a material share of X/X and X/1 outcomes. On that basis the most reliable single pick is 1/1 (Millonarios lead at half-time and win full-time), hence the main selection 1/1.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Millonarios | Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Santa Fe is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Millonarios · 1.6 pts / match - Santa Fe
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Millonarios is 39% better for: goals scored per match.
1.67 goals / match - Millonarios · 1.2 goals / match - Santa Fe
Millonarios is 12% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.13 goals / match - Millonarios · 1.27 goals / match - Santa Fe
Millonarios scores in 80% of matches (12 of 15 matches), while Santa Fe keeps a clean sheet in 7% (1 of 15 matches).
Santa Fe scores in 87% of matches (13 of 15 matches), while Millonarios keeps a clean sheet in 33% (5 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Millonarios
Over / Under - Santa Fe
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Millonarios is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.67 pts / match - Millonarios · 1.47 pts / match - Santa Fe
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Millonarios - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Santa Fe - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 27%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Millonarios
Santa Fe
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Millonarios | Liga | Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.80 | 2.49 | • 2.47 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 55% | ▲ 80% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 48% | • 47% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 27% | ▼ 7% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 60% | 70% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 78% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (6): Millonarios 3 - 1 - 2 Santa Fe. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Millonarios vs Santa Fe?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Millonarios 1:1 Santa Fe. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Millonarios and Santa Fe?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches Millonarios won 3, Santa Fe won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Millonarios vs Santa Fe?
Millonarios score 1.67 goals per game on average and Santa Fe 1.20. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.49 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Millonarios's matches and 80% of Santa Fe's.
What form are Millonarios and Santa Fe in?
Over the last 5 games Millonarios have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Santa Fe 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Millonarios vs Santa Fe?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Millonarios vs Santa Fe: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.