Millwall vs Derby County: match statistics
Millwall presents impressive home form with a 56% home win rate and failing to score in only 22% of their matches. The hosts are in excellent disposition, winning four of their last five overall matches (2.4 PPG). Derby County, despite a decent away record (47% win rate), exhibits lower attacking efficiency on the road (xG 1.13 vs Millwall's 1.58 at home) and a higher average of goals conceded (1.29). A key factor is Millwall's advantage in ball possession (48% vs 39%) and their efficiency in home games, where they score an average of 1.44 goals while maintaining a 44% clean sheet rate. The difference in expected goals (xG For 1.58 for Millwall vs xG Against 1.55 for Derby) and the hosts' solid home streak strongly support their victory, although the competitive nature of the Championship and Derby's good form make a draw a realistic scenario.
Millwall vs Derby County: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Millwall played Derby County in Championship (England). The match was played on 10 March 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Millwall: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Derby County: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Millwall scores 1.39 and concedes 1.14 goals per match. Derby County scores 1.50 and concedes 1.31. League average: 2.59 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Millwall 47%, Derby County 69%. Over 2.5: Millwall 50%, Derby County 53%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Millwall has higher xG: 1.44 vs 1.20. Millwall: 12.7 shots per match, Derby County: 10.3.
Match halves
Millwall: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.83. Derby County: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 0.81.
Goals by minute
Millwall: 76-90+ (15 goals). Derby County: 31-45+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.59 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Millwall presents impressive home form with a 56% home win rate and failing to score in only 22% of their matches. The hosts are in excellent disposition, winning four of their last five overall matches (2.4 PPG). Derby County, despite a decent away record (47% win rate), exhibits lower attacking efficiency on the road (xG 1.13 vs Millwall's 1.58 at home) and a higher average of goals conceded (1.29). A key factor is Millwall's advantage in ball possession (48% vs 39%) and their efficiency in home games, where they score an average of 1.44 goals while maintaining a 44% clean sheet rate. The difference in expected goals (xG For 1.58 for Millwall vs xG Against 1.55 for Derby) and the hosts' solid home streak strongly support their victory, although the competitive nature of the Championship and Derby's good form make a draw a realistic scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Millwall | Derby County | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Millwall is 33% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Millwall · 1.8 pts / match - Derby County
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Derby County is 8% better for: goals scored per match.
1.39 goals / match - Millwall · 1.5 goals / match - Derby County
Millwall is 15% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.14 goals / match - Millwall · 1.31 goals / match - Derby County
Millwall scores in 81% of matches (29 of 36 matches), while Derby County keeps a clean sheet in 22% (8 of 36 matches).
Derby County scores in 92% of matches (33 of 36 matches), while Millwall keeps a clean sheet in 39% (14 of 36 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Millwall
Over / Under - Derby County
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Millwall - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Derby County - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Millwall
Derby County
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Millwall | Liga | Derby County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.53 | 2.59 | ▲ 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 56% | ▲ 69% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 50% | 51% | ▲ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 25% | ▼ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 71% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 72% | 78% | ▲ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Millwall 0 - 1 - 0 Derby County. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Millwall vs Derby County?
The Championship match finished Millwall 1:0 Derby County. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Millwall vs Derby County?
Millwall score 1.39 goals per game on average and Derby County 1.50. The Championship average is 2.59 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Millwall's matches and 69% of Derby County's.
What form are Millwall and Derby County in?
Over the last 5 games Millwall have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Derby County 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Millwall vs Derby County?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.