Millwall vs Swansea City: match statistics
Millwall performs decidedly better in home matches, achieving a 54% win rate and only a 31% loss rate at their own stadium. The hosts hold the advantage in expected goals (xG 1.52 vs 1.20), indicating the creation of higher quality scoring chances. Swansea City records poor results on the road with just 25% wins and a staggering 58% losses, failing to score in 42% of their matches. The form of both teams in the last five games is similar (Millwall 1 PPG vs Swansea 1.8 PPG); however, home advantage and xG statistics favor the hosts. Millwall's home goal difference (-1) is superior to Swansea's away record (-5), further supporting the prediction of a home win, although the slight edge suggests the possibility of a draw.
Millwall vs Swansea City: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Millwall played Swansea City in Championship (England). The match was played on 4 January 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Millwall: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Swansea City: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Millwall scores 1.08 and concedes 1.28 goals per match. Swansea City scores 1.04 and concedes 1.24. League average: 2.60 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Millwall 44%, Swansea City 52%. Over 2.5: Millwall 44%, Swansea City 44%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Millwall has higher xG: 1.39 vs 1.30. Millwall: 12.3 shots per match, Swansea City: 11.5.
Match halves
Millwall: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.60. Swansea City: half-time lead 12%, second-half goals 0.68.
Goals by minute
Millwall: 76-90+ (7 goals). Swansea City: 61-75 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.60 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Millwall performs decidedly better in home matches, achieving a 54% win rate and only a 31% loss rate at their own stadium. The hosts hold the advantage in expected goals (xG 1.52 vs 1.20), indicating the creation of higher quality scoring chances. Swansea City records poor results on the road with just 25% wins and a staggering 58% losses, failing to score in 42% of their matches. The form of both teams in the last five games is similar (Millwall 1 PPG vs Swansea 1.8 PPG); however, home advantage and xG statistics favor the hosts. Millwall's home goal difference (-1) is superior to Swansea's away record (-5), further supporting the prediction of a home win, although the slight edge suggests the possibility of a draw.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Millwall | Swansea City | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Swansea City is 80% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Millwall · 1.8 pts / match - Swansea City
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Millwall scores in 72% of matches (18 of 25 matches), while Swansea City keeps a clean sheet in 28% (7 of 25 matches).
Swansea City scores in 76% of matches (19 of 25 matches), while Millwall keeps a clean sheet in 36% (9 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Millwall
Over / Under - Swansea City
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Millwall is 57% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.32 pts / match - Millwall · 0.84 pts / match - Swansea City
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Millwall - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Swansea City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 12% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Millwall
Swansea City
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Millwall | Liga | Swansea City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.36 | 2.60 | ▼ 2.28 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 58% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 51% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 24% | ▲ 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 73% | ▼ 68% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 64% | 77% | • 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Millwall 0 - 1 - 0 Swansea City. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Millwall vs Swansea City?
The Championship match finished Millwall 2:1 Swansea City. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Millwall vs Swansea City?
Millwall score 1.08 goals per game on average and Swansea City 1.04. The Championship average is 2.60 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Millwall's matches and 52% of Swansea City's.
What form are Millwall and Swansea City in?
Over the last 5 games Millwall have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Swansea City 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Millwall vs Swansea City?
The statistical background for Millwall vs Swansea City — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.