Mineros de Zacatecas vs Morelia: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a closely contested match with a slight edge towards a draw. Mineros de Zacatecas displays solid home form with 60% draws and only 10% losses at their stadium, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded per home match. Morelia shows improved form in their last five away games with two victories, however, their overall away record (30% wins, 40% draws) and a negative goal difference (-2) do not give them a decisive advantage. A key factor is the hosts' possession advantage (58% vs 48%) and a superior xG rate in home matches (1.71 vs 1.37 for the visitors away), suggesting greater control of the game by Mineros. Considering the home side's tendency to draw and the recent form of both teams, the most probable outcome is a share of the points, although the hosts hold a slight advantage due to the home pitch factor.
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Morelia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mineros de Zacatecas played Morelia in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 7 February 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Mineros de Zacatecas: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Morelia: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mineros de Zacatecas scores 1.70 and concedes 1.60 goals per match. Morelia scores 1.43 and concedes 1.19. League average: 2.91 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mineros de Zacatecas 65%, Morelia 43%. Over 2.5: Mineros de Zacatecas 65%, Morelia 57%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Morelia has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.60. Mineros de Zacatecas: 13.2 shots per match, Morelia: 14.1.
Match halves
Mineros de Zacatecas: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.75. Morelia: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.71.
Goals by minute
Mineros de Zacatecas: 31-45+ (11 goals). Morelia: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.91 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a closely contested match with a slight edge towards a draw. Mineros de Zacatecas displays solid home form with 60% draws and only 10% losses at their stadium, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded per home match. Morelia shows improved form in their last five away games with two victories, however, their overall away record (30% wins, 40% draws) and a negative goal difference (-2) do not give them a decisive advantage. A key factor is the hosts' possession advantage (58% vs 48%) and a superior xG rate in home matches (1.71 vs 1.37 for the visitors away), suggesting greater control of the game by Mineros. Considering the home side's tendency to draw and the recent form of both teams, the most probable outcome is a share of the points, although the hosts hold a slight advantage due to the home pitch factor.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mineros de Zacatecas | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Morelia is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Mineros de Zacatecas · 1.6 pts / match - Morelia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mineros de Zacatecas is 19% better for: goals scored per match.
1.7 goals / match - Mineros de Zacatecas · 1.43 goals / match - Morelia
Morelia is 34% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.6 goals / match - Mineros de Zacatecas · 1.19 goals / match - Morelia
Mineros de Zacatecas scores in 80% of matches (16 of 20 matches), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 38% (8 of 21 matches).
Morelia scores in 67% of matches (14 of 21 matches), while Mineros de Zacatecas keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mineros de Zacatecas
Over / Under - Morelia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mineros de Zacatecas is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.75 pts / match - Mineros de Zacatecas · 1.62 pts / match - Morelia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mineros de Zacatecas - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 30%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mineros de Zacatecas
Morelia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.30 | 2.91 | ▼ 2.62 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 65% | 55% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 65% | 53% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 27% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 85% | 75% | ▼ 62% |
| Goal after half-time | • 80% | 80% | • 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Mineros de Zacatecas 0 - 0 - 1 Morelia. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mineros de Zacatecas vs Morelia?
The Ascenso MX match finished Mineros de Zacatecas 1:1 Morelia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mineros de Zacatecas vs Morelia?
Mineros de Zacatecas score 1.70 goals per game on average and Morelia 1.43. The Ascenso MX average is 2.91 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 65% of Mineros de Zacatecas's matches and 43% of Morelia's.
What form are Mineros de Zacatecas and Morelia in?
Over the last 5 games Mineros de Zacatecas have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Morelia 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mineros de Zacatecas vs Morelia?
The statistical background for Mineros de Zacatecas vs Morelia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.