Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mineros de Zacatecas played Tepatitlán de Morelos in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 29 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Mineros de Zacatecas: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Tepatitlán de Morelos: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mineros de Zacatecas scores 1.59 and concedes 1.53 goals per match. Tepatitlán de Morelos scores 1.35 and concedes 0.91. League average: 2.87 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mineros de Zacatecas 59%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 47%. Over 2.5: Mineros de Zacatecas 63%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 35%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Tepatitlán de Morelos has higher xG: 1.62 vs 1.55. Mineros de Zacatecas: 12.9 shots per match, Tepatitlán de Morelos: 13.6.
Match halves
Mineros de Zacatecas: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 0.69. Tepatitlán de Morelos: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.74.
Goals by minute
Mineros de Zacatecas: 31-45+ (14 goals). Tepatitlán de Morelos: 76-90+ (17 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.87 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Mineros de Zacatecas are favorites: at home they score on average 1.88 goals per match (51 this season) with an xG of 1.70 and 56% possession, while Tepatitlán averages only 1.12 goals away with an xG of 1.45 and 47% possession. The hosts register 15.25 shots per game with 5.25 on target, versus 11.88 and 4.76 for the visitors, and their home conversion rate is 12% compared to 9% for the away side. Mineros fail to score less often (FTS 13% at home vs 41% for Tepatitlán away) and keep 44% clean sheets at home, while the visitors record only 24% clean sheets on the road. Additionally, the hosts have a positive home goal difference (+14), whereas the visitors have a neutral away goal difference (0), highlighting Mineros’ greater advantage at their stadium. Although Tepatitlán has averaged 1.6 points per game in the last 5 matches versus Mineros’ 1.4, the overall superiority in efficiency, possession and quality of chances favors a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Indicators slightly favor 'BTTS - Yes': the league BTTS rate is 56%, and the away side has a season BTTS of 53% versus the home side's 41%. However, the home team shows a strong defensive profile at home — average goals conceded at the stadium is 0.71 and they have kept a clean sheet in 47% of matches, which reduces the likelihood of Goal/Goal. On the other hand both teams possess scoring potential: the hosts score 1.59 goals on average (xG 1.79) and the visitors 1.12 (xG 1.45), with 5.47 vs 4.76 shots on target and 7 goals in the last 5 matches for each side. Considering the higher league BTTS (56%) and away BTTS (53%) alongside the mitigating factor of the hosts' 47% clean sheets, I assign the edge to the 'Yes' scenario — 60% vs 40% for 'No'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I predict 1.60 goals for the home side and 1.35 for the away side (total 2.95), calculated as average xG: home attack 1.79 vs xG conceded by away 1.40, and away attack 1.45 vs xG conceded by home 1.24. With an expected total of 2.95 the Poisson model yields about a 79% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~57% for Over 2.5 and ~34% for Over 3.5, which directly informs the recommendation. Seasonal data supports this: homes have 76% of matches with over 1.5 goals, away teams 59%, and the league averages 2.87 goals per match. Additionally Mineros score 1.59 goals at home and concede 0.71, while Tepatitlán have 1.12 scored and 1.12 conceded away, showing a home offensive advantage and a moderate away effectiveness. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 due to the high 79% probability and support from xG and the seasonal 76%/59% metrics.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Mineros are the favorites: they average 1.59 goals scored per match and concede 0.71, while Tepatitlán average 1.12 scored and 1.12 conceded; hosts have won 59% of matches versus 18% for the visitors, which strongly supports a home victory. The hosts led at the break in 7 matches (41%) and average 0.76 goals by half-time with 0.47 conceded, whereas the visitors average 0.47 scored and 0.53 conceded by half-time, so the most likely scenario is Mineros leading after 45 minutes. The hosts’ xG is 1.79 versus 1.45 for the visitors, and the hosts average 15.12 shots versus 11.88 for the guests, translating into a clear advantage in chance creation; additionally, the hosts concede only 0.24 goals on average in the second half versus 0.59 for the visitors, so they should maintain the lead. Considering these figures and the fact that the visitors have many draws (53% of their matches end level), the strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time market of home lead at the break and home win at full-time (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mineros de Zacatecas | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Mineros de Zacatecas · 1.6 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mineros de Zacatecas is 18% better for: goals scored per match.
1.59 goals / match - Mineros de Zacatecas · 1.35 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 68% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.53 goals / match - Mineros de Zacatecas · 0.91 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mineros de Zacatecas scores in 78% of matches (25 of 32 matches), while Tepatitlán de Morelos keeps a clean sheet in 35% (12 of 34 matches).
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores in 71% of matches (24 of 34 matches), while Mineros de Zacatecas keeps a clean sheet in 28% (9 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mineros de Zacatecas
Over / Under - Tepatitlán de Morelos
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mineros de Zacatecas is 28% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.69 pts / match - Mineros de Zacatecas · 1.32 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mineros de Zacatecas - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 38%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tepatitlán de Morelos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +10 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mineros de Zacatecas
Tepatitlán de Morelos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.13 | 2.87 | ▼ 2.26 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 59% | 56% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 63% | 53% | ▼ 35% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 28% | 26% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 88% | 75% | • 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 81% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Mineros de Zacatecas 0 - 1 - 1 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
The Ascenso MX match finished Mineros de Zacatecas 1:1 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Mineros de Zacatecas and Tepatitlán de Morelos?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Mineros de Zacatecas won 0, Tepatitlán de Morelos won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 5.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Mineros de Zacatecas score 1.59 goals per game on average and Tepatitlán de Morelos 1.35. The Ascenso MX average is 2.87 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 59% of Mineros de Zacatecas's matches and 47% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's.
What form are Mineros de Zacatecas and Tepatitlán de Morelos in?
Over the last 5 games Mineros de Zacatecas have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.