Mirandés vs Granada CF: match statistics

Both teams are in poor form: Mirandés has 0.8 points per game in the last 5 matches and has scored 7 while conceding 11, and Granada has 0.6 points per game with 4 goals scored and 10 conceded over the same period. Home advantage favors chance creation — Mirandés averages 14.1 shots and 4.7 on target per home game with an xG of 1.53, whereas Granada on the road records 10.45 shots, 3.35 on target and xG 1.17. However, efficiency favors the visitors: Mirandés’ home conversion rate is 7% versus Granada’s 10%, and the share of matches without a goal is 35% for the hosts and 30% for the visitors. Defensively the differences are minimal — Mirandés concedes 1.5 goals at home with xG against 1.45, and Granada concedes 1.4 goals away with xG against 1.46, indicating a similar number of clear chances allowed. Considering Mirandés create more chances but Granada show better efficiency and a higher clean sheet rate (30% vs 10%), the most likely outcome is a draw, with marginally balanced chances for either side to win.

Mirandés has a seasonal BTTS rate of 55% and Granada 45%, with a league average BTTS of 56%, which gives a slight edge to a both-teams-to-score outcome. The trend from the last 5 matches reinforces this signal: Mirandés has BTTS in 80% of games (4/5), Granada in 40% (2/5); additionally Mirandés concedes on average 2.2 goals in the last 5, and Granada 2.0, increasing the likelihood of both sides conceding. xG analysis shows Mirandés produces 1.45 xG at home while Granada allows opponents 1.46 xG away; conversely Granada creates 1.17 xG and Mirandés concedes on average 1.18 xG, so both sides have comparable chances of creating scoring opportunities. Furthermore Mirandés registers an average of 4.15 shots on target versus Granada’s 3.35, and both teams keep a clean sheet in only 30% of matches (i.e. concede in 70%), which favors a BTTS scenario. Considering the above figures (elevated xG, Mirandés’ 80% BTTS in last 5 and league BTTS frequency of 56%), I assess BTTS probability at 70% vs 30% for No Goal and recommend a "yes" (BTTS - Yes) bet.

Expected goals are about 1.46 for Mirandés (xG_for_home 1.45 vs xG_against_away 1.46) and 1.18 for Granada (xG_for_away 1.17 vs xG_against_home 1.18), totaling ~2.64 goals. From a Poisson distribution with mean 2.64 we get P(0)=0.071 and P(1)=0.188, hence Over 1.5 ≈74% (sum P(0)+P(1)=0.259), Over 2.5 ≈49% and Over 3.5 ≈27%. Seasonal stats support this view: Over 1.5 occurs in 60% of Mirandés matches and 65% of Granada matches, and Mirandés had Over 2.5 in 80% of their last 5 games. Both teams concede a lot (Mirandés 67 conceded, Granada 51) and register on-target shots averaging 4.15 (home) vs 3.35 (away), which increases the likelihood of at least 2 goals. Consequently, the clearest signal from the data is backing Over 1.5.

At half-time a draw is most likely: Mirandés were level at the break in 55% of their home matches, while Granada were level at half-time in 35% of their away games; the home side led at the break in 30% of fixtures, and the visitors trailed at half-time in 35%. After the interval I expect Mirandés to take advantage: their xG is 1.45 versus Granada’s 1.17, the hosts average 13.55 shots and 4.15 on target compared to the visitors’ 10.45 and 3.35, giving them a clear creative edge. Granada concede on average 1.40 goals per match while Mirandés concede 1.15, so the visitors are slightly more susceptible to conceding, increasing the likelihood of a turnaround in favour of the hosts in the second half. Mirandés score on average 0.95 goals before the break versus Granada’s 0.50, but given the high proportion of HT draws for the hosts (55%), the analysis points to a Half-Time draw and Full-Time Mirandés win (X/1) as the most probable scenario. Therefore I assign X/1 the highest weight (24%), followed by X/X (18%) and 1/1 (15%) as the next most likely options.