Mirandés vs SD Eibar: match statistics

I back the away win (SD Eibar). Eibar sit 8th in the table, Mirandés 20th, and this season the visitors have 17 wins versus 9 for the hosts. In their last 5 matches Eibar scored 10 goals and recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (averaging 2.0 points per game), while Mirandés scored 9 goals, won 2 of 5 and average 1.4 points per game, conceding as many as 11 goals in that run. Eibar’s clear advantage is defensively: Mirandés have conceded 64 goals this season (1.53 per home game), while Eibar only 36 (1.06 per away game), with Mirandés keeping clean sheets in 11% of home matches versus 39% clean sheets for Eibar on the road. The hosts generate more chances (13.84 shots and 4.84 on target per game and home xG 1.52), but low efficiency (conversion rate around 7% and 32% of matches without a goal) combined with a poor defensive record means Eibar remain the clear favourite despite the chances created by the home side.

Statistical analysis gives a small but clear edge to the 'both teams to score' scenario. Mirandés has a seasonal BTTS rate of 55% and BTTS in the last 5 matches was 100% — in those five games they averaged 1.8 goals scored and conceded 2.2 (9 for, 11 against), and their xG_for is 1.69 versus Eibar’s xG_against 1.47, indicating a real chance for Mirandés to score. Eibar as an away team has a seasonal BTTS 33% and scores only 0.67 goals per game seasonally, failing to score in 44% of matches, but in the last 5 matches they averaged 2.0 goals with xG 1.2 and conceded 1.0, so their recent form increases the likelihood of them scoring. The xG-based model (expected goals ~1.58 for Mirandés and ~1.06 for Eibar) yields about a 52% probability of BTTS, while a simple “probability to score” approach (0.85×0.56≈47.6%) gives ~48% — signals are similar, but higher xG and Mirandés’ last 5 matches nudge me slightly toward 'yes'. Therefore I propose a split of 55% for 'yes' and 45% for 'no', recommended pick: 'yes' (BTTS - Yes).

Expected goals in this match total around 2.64: Mirandés 1.58 (offensive xG 1.69 vs xG conceded 1.47) and SD Eibar 1.06 (offensive xG 0.98 vs xG conceded 1.14). Mirandés at home averages 14.4 shots with 5.4 on target, scores 1.75 goals season-to-date and has 75% of matches over 1.5 goals, while Eibar averages 8.22 shots, 2.72 on target, 0.67 goals per season and 44% of matches over 1.5. In the short term the last 5 fixtures show a more aggressive profile (Over 2.5 in the last 5: Mirandés 100% vs Eibar 80%), but season-long Eibar has only 28% of matches over 2.5, which reduces confidence in higher lines. A Poisson model with lambda=2.64 gives ~74% probability for Over 1.5, ~49% for Over 2.5 and ~27% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (74%), while the 2.5 line is almost even and 3.5 remains unlikely.

I rate X/1 (draw at Half-Time, Mirandés win at Full-Time) as the strongest signal (35%). Mirandés hold an offensive advantage: they average 1.75 goals per home match versus 0.67 for Eibar away, home xG is 1.69 compared to Eibar’s 0.98, and 5.4 shots on target versus 2.72 for the visitors. At Half-Time both teams frequently sit level (Mirandés draw in 45% of HT, Eibar in 39% HT; HT average goals are 0.65 for the hosts and 0.39 for the guests), so a draw at Half-Time is realistic. Mirandés dominate after the break — averaging 1.55 goals in the second half and winning 55% of second halves versus 0.78 goals and 17% for Eibar — therefore 1/1 (25%) and X/X (15%) are the next logical scenarios, while the remaining options are significantly less likely.