Mirassol vs Bahia: match statistics
Mirassol vs Bahia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mirassol played Bahia in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Mirassol: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match. Bahia: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mirassol scores 1.11 and concedes 1.56 goals per match. Bahia scores 1.44 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.65 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mirassol 56%, Bahia 56%. Over 2.5: Mirassol 56%, Bahia 44%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Mirassol has higher xG: 1.73 vs 1.38. Mirassol: 15.8 shots per match, Bahia: 12.2.
Match halves
Mirassol: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.67. Bahia: half-time lead 56%, second-half goals 0.33.
Goals by minute
Mirassol: 76-90+ (3 goals). Bahia: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.65 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Favorite is Bahia: they sit 5th in the table, have won 3 of their last 5 matches and average 1.8 points per match in that period, while Mirassol has only 0.6 points. Mirassol at home generates higher attacking volume — average xG 1.93, 17.8 shots and 6.4 shots on target per game — but their finishing rate at home is only 7% and in 40% of home matches they fail to score. Bahia away have lower xG (1.02) and fewer shots (9.25 with 3.25 on target), but superior conversion at 14%, averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0% of away games without a goal. Defensively Bahia is more reliable — 50% clean sheets away and 1.25 goals conceded per away match versus 0% clean sheets for Mirassol and 1.4 goals conceded at home. Given their higher efficiency in converting fewer chances, the points advantage (1.8 vs 0.6) and more clean sheets, I give the away side the better chance of winning.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal indicators suggest a moderate probability for BTTS: Mirassol has BTTS at 60% for the season, Bahia 50%, and the league average is 57%, which at first glance favors a Goal/Goal scenario. However, a strong signal against BTTS comes from form and recent stats: in the last 5 matches Mirassol has only 20% BTTS and scored a total of 3 goals (0.6 per game), while Bahia has 40% BTTS and 8 goals in the last 5 (1.6 per game). Looking at xG and shots, Mirassol generates xG 1.67 and averages 6.4 shots on target, whereas Bahia has xG 1.02 and 3.25 shots on target; at the same time Bahia concedes average xG 1.85 versus Mirassol 1.20 defensively, which suggests Mirassol has a greater potential to score than Bahia. Additionally Bahia keeps a clean sheet in 50% of season matches versus 40% for Mirassol, and Bahia’s better form (last 5: 'wwlwl') increases the likelihood that one of the teams will not score. Considering the conflicting signals (seasonal BTTS preference vs Mirassol’s poor recent BTTS and Bahia’s high clean sheet rate), I assign higher probability to No Goal: 60% 'no' vs 40% 'yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Averaging Mirassol’s offensive xG (1.67) and Bahia’s defensive xG (1.85) yields a forecast of 1.76 goals for the home side; similarly Bahia’s attack (1.02) and Mirassol’s defense (1.20) give 1.11 goals for the away team, totaling 2.87 expected goals. Mirassol has 100% of home matches over 1.5 goals, Bahia 50% in away games, and the league averages 2.66 goals per match, supporting a high likely scoring level. Additionally, Mirassol averages 6.4 shots on target and 14.6 total shots per game versus Bahia’s 3.25/9.25, and BTTS occurs in 60% of Mirassol’s matches and 50% of Bahia’s, increasing the chance of at least two goals. For these reasons the safest and strongest signal is a bet on Over 1.5 (recommendation: Over 1.5).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Data indicate a clear edge for Bahia in results: the away win rate is 75% with a season average points of 2.25 versus 1.6 for the home side, and recent forms are 'wwlwl' for Bahia versus 'llllw' for Mirassol. Bahia led at the break in 75% of matches and averages 1.25 goals before half-time, while Mirassol has averaged only 0.2 goals at the break over the last five games, which supports the away side taking a lead in the first half. Although Mirassol produces higher xG (1.67 vs 1.02) and more shots (14.6 vs 9.25) and shots on target (6.4 vs 3.25), that creative advantage does not translate into form and results for the visitors. Therefore the primary scenario is Bahia leading at half-time and winning full-time (2/2 — 40%), with realistic alternatives being X/2 (18%) and 2/X (12%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mirassol | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bahia is 30% better for: goals scored per match.
1.11 goals / match - Mirassol · 1.44 goals / match - Bahia
Bahia is 56% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.56 goals / match - Mirassol · 1 goals / match - Bahia
Mirassol scores in 56% of matches (5 of 9 matches), while Bahia keeps a clean sheet in 44% (4 of 9 matches).
Bahia scores in 100% of matches (9 of 9 matches), while Mirassol keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mirassol
Over / Under - Bahia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Bahia is 142% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.78 pts / match - Mirassol · 1.89 pts / match - Bahia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mirassol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 11%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Bahia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 56% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mirassol
Bahia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Mirassol | Liga | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.67 | 2.65 | ▼ 2.44 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 56% | 58% | ▼ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 47% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 23% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 76% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 76% | ▼ 44% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Mirassol 1 - 1 - 0 Bahia. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mirassol vs Bahia?
The Serie A match finished Mirassol 1:2 Bahia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Bahia?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Mirassol won 1, Bahia won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Mirassol vs Bahia?
Mirassol score 1.11 goals per game on average and Bahia 1.44. The Serie A average is 2.65 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Mirassol's matches and 56% of Bahia's.
What form are Mirassol and Bahia in?
Over the last 5 games Mirassol have a 0-0-5 record (0.00 points per game) and Bahia 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mirassol vs Bahia?
The statistical background for Mirassol vs Bahia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.