Mirassol vs Botafogo: match statistics

Mirassol have a slight but clear home advantage: they average 1.36 goals at home with an xG of 1.76, while Botafogo create chances worth just 1.32 xG away from home. The hosts also register more shots on target, averaging 5.57 compared with 4.69, whereas Botafogo concede as many as 1.77 goals per away match and allow opponents 1.78 xG. Neither team’s form is particularly convincing, but Mirassol have lost just once in their last five matches, drawing three, while Botafogo have suffered two defeats and scored only 4 goals. The home record also favours Mirassol: they win 36% of their home matches, while the visitors lose as many as 54% of their away fixtures. Botafogo have the better shot conversion rate, 11% compared with 8%, but Mirassol’s greater volume of chances and their opponents’ weak away defence point towards a narrow home victory.

Both teams have recorded an identical, high rate of matches with goals scored by both sides this season, at 69% compared with the league average of 59%. Mirassol create plenty of chances, averaging 1.81 xG, 17.0 shots and 5.62 shots on target per match, while Botafogo keep a clean sheet in only 8% of their appearances. The hosts are also defensively inconsistent, conceding an average of 1.38 goals while allowing opponents 1.62 xG, whereas Botafogo have produced as much as 2.12 xG per match across their last five games. The main risk to the pick is the visitors’ weaker recent finishing, having scored only 4 goals in five matches and recorded BTTS in 40% of them. However, their chance-creation potential and the vulnerability of both defences provide stronger support for the BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal outcome. Additionally, 54% of matches involving each team have ended with both BTTS and at least three goals, indicating a consistently open profile in these fixtures.

Mirassol averages 1.81 xG at home and registers 17.0 shots per match, while Botafogo allows an average of 1.77 goals and 1.78 xG away from home. The hosts score an average of 1.62 goals, compared with 1.31 for the visitors, and Botafogo’s poor defensive efficiency—having kept a clean sheet in just 8% of away matches—supports the scenario of at least two goals. The 1.5 line has been covered in 85% of Mirassol’s matches and 77% of Botafogo’s, clearly more often than the league’s tendency toward cautious results. Although the last five matches produced Over 2.5 goals in 40% of games for both teams, the advantage on Over 2.5 is therefore smaller. The strongest pick remains Over 1.5, as the season data, the hosts’ creative edge and the visitors’ vulnerable defence indicate a high safety margin for this line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as both teams have averaged just 0.2 goals before the break across their last five matches, and neither side scored in the first half in any of those games. Mirassol nevertheless have the clearer potential to secure the full-time win: their average xG stands at 1.81 compared with Botafogo’s 1.32, while the visitors allow opponents an xG of 1.78. The hosts’ advantage should increase after the interval, as they average 1.08 goals in the second half, compared with Botafogo’s 0.62, while the visitors concede an average of 1.00 goal during this period. Botafogo were trailing at half-time in 46% of their matches and lost 54% of them, so the HT/FT scenario of a draw at the break followed by a Mirassol win at the final whistle is the most strongly supported by the data.