Mirassol vs Chapecoense: match statistics

Mirassol has a clear home advantage: on average 1.29 goals per home match with xG 1.76 and 6.14 shots on target, versus Chapecoense who score an average 0.4 goals away with xG 0.79 and only 1.2 shots on target. The visitors have major defensive issues — their average away xG against is 2.42, they conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches, while Mirassol conceded 3 and scored 7 in that period. Additionally, Mirassol averages 2 points per match in the last 5 games, whereas Chapecoense has 0 points and 5 losses, indicating a significant form gap. The percentage of matches without scoring is 60% for Chapecoense away and 29% for Mirassol at home; both teams have 0% clean sheets, so I expect goals from both sides. Considering xG (1.76 vs 0.79), possession (52% vs 39%) and shot conversion (8% vs 5%), I forecast a Mirassol win and assess the chances as 72% for the home side, 18% for a draw and 10% for a visiting upset.

Chapecoense has a season average of just 0.4 goals per game, registers only 1.2 shots on target on average and failed to score in 60% of matches, which is a strong argument against BTTS. Mirassol at home averages 1.38 goals per game with xG 1.56 and a season BTTS rate of 75%, but concedes 2.13 goals season-wide, so the hosts typically allow opponent goals. In the last 5 matches Mirassol scored 7 and conceded 3 (1.4 and 0.6 per game), while Chapecoense has 3 scored and 11 conceded (0.6 and 2.2), suggesting the hosts will create chances and the visitors have serious finishing problems. Considering Chapecoense’s 60% share of matches without scoring and the guests’ lower xG 0.79 versus the hosts’ 1.56, I assign a 65% probability to No BTTS and 35% to BTTS — recommendation: No (No Goal / clean sheet expected).

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: Mirassol have 88% of home matches over 1.5, Chapecoense 100% away, averaging 94% probability for Over 1.5. An xG-based model gives (1.56+2.42)/2 = 1.99 xG for Mirassol and (0.79+1.62)/2 = 1.21 xG for Chapecoense, totaling 3.20 expected goals, which also supports an increased probability for Over 2.5 (I estimate 70%). Chapecoense conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 avg), while Mirassol in their last 5 have 7 scored and 3 conceded (1.4 and 0.6 avg); hosts also generate 4.13 shots on target vs. 1.2 for the visitors, so Mirassol will create the majority of chances. Although Mirassol have 50% of home matches over 3.5 this season and Chapecoense 0% away, the 3.20 expected goals is below the 3.5 threshold, so I rate Over 3.5 moderately (34%). In summary, the best pick is Over 1.5 at the 1.5 line based on the 94% seasonal rate and 3.20 expected goals (1.99 vs 1.21).

At half-time a draw appears most likely: Mirassol were level at the break in 75% of their matches, and Chapecoense in 80%, with the home side scoring 15 goals in the first 45 minutes this season versus 1 for the visitors. Mirassol also hold a clear overall attacking edge — home xG 1.56 vs 0.79, on average 4.13 shots on target compared to 1.2 for the away team, and season goal averages 1.38 vs 0.4. Form supports this picture: in their last 5 matches Mirassol won 3 of 5 (60%), while Chapecoense lost all 5 (100%), which increases the likelihood of a full-time victory for the hosts. Additionally, the home side average 0.63 goals by half-time while the visitors average 0.0, so the most logical scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a Mirassol win at Full-Time, hence the HT/FT selection X/1 (scenarios starting with a draw carry roughly ~70% combined probability).