Mirassol vs Fluminense: match statistics

Fluminense are the favorites: they sit 3rd and have won 9 matches this season versus Mirassol’s 3 wins; the visitors have scored 27 goals this season while the hosts have 17. Fluminense average 61% possession away compared to Mirassol’s 53% at home and have higher shot efficiency — 10% conversion vs the hosts’ 7% — which gives them a qualitative edge despite a lower shots-per-game volume (13.71 vs 16.88). Both teams are in form: in the last 5 matches Mirassol scored 8 goals and averaged 2.0 points per game, while Fluminense scored 9 goals and averaged 2.2 points per game, yet Mirassol have not kept a clean sheet at home (0%), conceding 1.38 goals on average, whereas Fluminense have a 14% rate of clean sheets away. Mirassol do have higher average xG at home (1.8 vs 1.56 for Fluminense away) and more shots (16.88 vs 13.71), showing they can create chances, but lower efficiency limits their opportunities. Given Fluminense’s higher league position, better conversion (10% vs 7%) and lower share of matches without conceding (14% vs 25%), I back a Fluminense win, although I expect a tight match with a low goal margin.

Based on statistical data the stronger signal points to BTTS - Yes — Mirassol has BTTS at 78% and Fluminense 71%, versus the league average of 59%. In the last 5 matches Mirassol recorded BTTS in 80% of games and Fluminense in 100%, which is a strong short-term indicator of both teams scoring. Both teams create and concede goals offensively and defensively: Mirassol at home scores 1.89 and concedes 1.11, Fluminense away scores 1.43 and concedes 1.57; xG confirms this (xG Mirassol 1.89 vs xG against Fluminense 1.53, xG Fluminense 1.56 vs xG against Mirassol 1.2). Additionally Mirassol averages 6.78 shots on target and 16.56 shots per match, Fluminense 5.14 and 13.71, and clean sheet percentage is only 22% and 14%, which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. On this basis I assess probability of BTTS at 80% for Yes and 20% for No and recommend a bet on Yes.

Statistics indicate a goals game: Mirassol has an attacking xG of 1.89 and scores on average 1.89 goals per match, while Fluminense concedes opponents’ xG of 1.53, yielding expected home goals of about 1.71. For Fluminense the estimate is attacking xG 1.56 and Mirassol against xG 1.20, an average of 1.38 goals, totaling ~3.09 goals. Seasonal percentages confirm the tendency: Mirassol had Over 1.5 in 78% of matches, Fluminense in 100%, and BTTS at 78% and 71% respectively. Mirassol averages 16.56 shots with 6.78 on target (conversion 11%), Fluminense 13.71 and 5.14 on target (conversion 10%), which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. As a result the strongest signal is a bet on Over 1.5 (highest probability), while Over 2.5 also has a moderate chance (~63%), and Over 3.5 is less likely (~32%).

The most likely scenario is Mirassol leading at the break and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1). Mirassol led at half-time in 5 matches (56%) and averages 0.89 goals before the break with just 0.22 conceded, while Fluminense records 0.71 scored and 0.57 conceded goals by half-time. Over the full match Mirassol win 78% of home games, score 1.89 goals on average versus Fluminense’s 1.43, and the xG advantage is 1.89 vs 1.56 with xG against 1.20 vs 1.53, which confirms the home side’s edge. The hosts’ HT-BTTS is only 11% (both teams rarely score before the break), and Mirassol tend to score late in halves (4 goals in minutes 31–45 and 5 goals in 76–90), increasing the chance of maintaining the lead after the break. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is 1/1; scenarios 1/X or X/1 are possible, but the figures — 78% home wins, 56% half-time leads and the xG advantage — favor the lead being held.