Mirassol vs Grêmio: match statistics
Mirassol vs Grêmio: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mirassol played Grêmio in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 17 July 2026. Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Mirassol: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Grêmio: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mirassol scores 1.06 and concedes 1.41 goals per match. Grêmio scores 1.11 and concedes 1.28. League average: 2.65 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mirassol 59%, Grêmio 56%. Over 2.5: Mirassol 53%, Grêmio 39%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Mirassol has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.24. Mirassol: 14.0 shots per match, Grêmio: 11.3.
Match halves
Mirassol: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.41. Grêmio: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Mirassol: 31-45+ (6 goals). Grêmio: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.65 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back a Mirassol win because the hosts have a clear advantage in chance creation: at home they average 16.44 shots and 6.11 shots on target per match with xG 1.78, while Grêmio away averages only 8.11 shots and 2.11 on target with mean xG 0.90. Mirassol scores 1.22 goals per home match versus just 0.56 for Grêmio on the road, and the proportion of away matches without an opponent goal is as high as 44% versus 22% for the hosts. Defensively the difference is marginal — Mirassol concedes 1.22 goals per match at home, Grêmio concedes 1.33 away — but Mirassol’s offensive edge and higher xG make the difference. In the short term Grêmio shows better efficiency (9 goals and 1.6 points per match in the last 5), however poor away effectiveness and fewer shots (avg. 8.11) limit their realistic chances. Based on this I estimate probabilities of Mirassol win ~60%, draw 25% and Grêmio win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Base tendency points to BTTS - Yes: both teams have a seasonal "both teams to score" rate of 56% (Mirassol 56%, Grêmio 56%), and the league BTTS rate is 57%, providing a strong baseline in favor of both teams scoring. Mirassol averages 1.67 goals per match (xG 1.58), 14.56 shots and 5.0 on target, while Grêmio has a seasonal average of 0.56 goals (xG 0.9) and 2.11 shots on target — hosts hold the advantage in chance creation and conversion. Both teams, however, concede fairly regularly: Mirassol allows 1.22 goals per match (xG against 1.52), Grêmio 1.33 (xG against 1.51); Mirassol keeps a clean sheet in only 33% of home games, and Grêmio away in 22%, which increases the likelihood of goals for both sides. A key signal is form: in the last 5 matches Grêmio scored 9 goals (avg. 1.8) and had 80% BTTS, whereas Mirassol in the last 5 scored 4 goals (0.8) and had 40% BTTS — meaning the visitors are currently more likely to score despite weaker seasonal numbers. Considering the seasonal 56% BTTS, the league 57% and recent form, and the fact both teams concede on average ~1.2–1.3 goals, I estimate 62% for 'Yes' and 38% for 'No'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project 1.55 xG for Mirassol (attack xG 1.58 and xG conceded vs Grêmio 1.51) and 1.21 xG for Grêmio (attack xG 0.90 and xG conceded vs Mirassol 1.52), totaling 2.76 expected goals. Seasonally Mirassol posts Over 1.5 in 67% of matches, Grêmio in 78%, and both teams score in 56% of games, which strongly supports at least two goals in the match. Mirassol averages 5.0 on-target shots and 14.56 shots per game versus Grêmio’s 2.11 on-target and 8.11 shots, confirming the home side’s offensive edge and higher chance creation. Although season Over 2.5 percentages are 44% (Mirassol) and 33% (Grêmio), the combined xG forecast of 2.76 and Grêmio’s form in the last 5 matches (avg 1.8 goals and xG 1.26) give a moderate edge to Over 2.5; however the strongest signal is Over 1.5, so I recommend backing Over at the 1.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Mirassol has an xG of 1.58 versus Grêmio’s 0.90 and averages 5.0 shots on target per match compared to the visitors’ 2.11, indicating a clear offensive advantage for the hosts. At Half-Time Mirassol averages 0.67 goals while Grêmio only 0.22; the hosts led at the break in 33% of matches whereas Grêmio did not lead at all (0%), so a Half-Time draw or a lead for the home side is the dominant scenario. Mirassol scored 6 goals in the 46–60 minute window versus 1 for the visitors and averages 1.0 goals after the break, which increases the likelihood of a turnaround from a Half-Time draw to a Full-Time win. Season-long indicators show the hosts win 56% of home matches while Grêmio have no away wins (0%), therefore away-win scenarios are assigned low probability. On this basis I assign the highest probability to the Half-Time draw / Full-Time Mirassol win (X/1) — 31%, slightly above the 1/1 outcome (28%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mirassol | Grêmio | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mirassol is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Mirassol · 1 pts / match - Grêmio
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Grêmio is 5% better for: goals scored per match.
1.06 goals / match - Mirassol · 1.11 goals / match - Grêmio
Grêmio is 10% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.41 goals / match - Mirassol · 1.28 goals / match - Grêmio
Mirassol scores in 65% of matches (11 of 17 matches), while Grêmio keeps a clean sheet in 28% (5 of 18 matches).
Grêmio scores in 67% of matches (12 of 18 matches), while Mirassol keeps a clean sheet in 6% (1 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mirassol
Over / Under - Grêmio
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mirassol is 22% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.35 pts / match - Mirassol · 1.11 pts / match - Grêmio
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mirassol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 24%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Grêmio - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mirassol
Grêmio
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Mirassol | Liga | Grêmio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.47 | 2.65 | ▼ 2.39 |
| Both teams scored | • 59% | 58% | ▼ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 53% | 50% | ▼ 39% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 6% | 23% | ▲ 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 77% | ▼ 56% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 78% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Mirassol 2 - 0 - 0 Grêmio. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mirassol vs Grêmio?
The Serie A match finished Mirassol 2:1 Grêmio. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Grêmio?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Mirassol won 2, Grêmio won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Mirassol vs Grêmio?
Mirassol score 1.06 goals per game on average and Grêmio 1.11. The Serie A average is 2.65 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 59% of Mirassol's matches and 56% of Grêmio's.
What form are Mirassol and Grêmio in?
Over the last 5 games Mirassol have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Grêmio 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mirassol vs Grêmio?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.