Mito Hollyhock vs Tokyo: match statistics

Tokyo have won all 5 of their last matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding none, while Mito Hollyhock have recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats over the same period. The hosts have scored 8 goals in those 5 matches, but conceded 4, so their defence compares unfavourably with their opponents’. In the only away match covered by the data, Tokyo attempted 21 shots, including 7 on target, and posted an xG of 2.24, indicating their ability to create good chances. However, caution is warranted: Tokyo’s away xG against was 1.75, and the available data on Mito’s home performances do not allow for a reliable comparison between the teams in these conditions. Even so, Tokyo’s run of 5 wins and an 11:0 goal difference in their recent matches point to an away win.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is Tokyo’s defensive record: the visitors have kept a clean sheet in their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 0% of those games. At the same time, they have averaged 2.2 goals per match from an xG of 1.8, making it more likely that they will find the net themselves. Mito have averaged 1.6 goals in their last 5 matches, but BTTS has landed in only 20% of those games. Some caution is warranted given that Tokyo’s opponents have created chances worth an average of 1.31 xG, but the 5-match run without conceding tips the balance towards at least one team failing to score.

In their last 5 matches, Mito averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Tokyo scored 2.2 goals and conceded none. Despite these figures, only 20% of each team’s last 5 matches ended with at least 3 goals, pointing against a high-scoring game. During this period, Tokyo created chances worth 1.80 xG per match, compared with Mito’s 1.06 xG, so I assign the visitors the larger share of the projected 2.45 goals. The league average is 2.83 goals, but Tokyo’s defensive record and the low rate of matches with at least 3 goals for either side make Under 3.5 goals the strongest pick.

Tokyo have won all of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding none; Mito Hollyhock have won just once during that period, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8 goals per match. The visitors held a lead at the break in 3 of their 5 matches, compared with just 1 of 5 for the hosts, which points to Tokyo leading at half-time. After the break, Tokyo scored an average of 1.4 goals and conceded none, giving them a strong basis for maintaining their advantage through to full-time. A half-time draw remains a notable alternative, as it occurred in 2 of Tokyo’s last 5 matches and 3 of Mito’s. Cup-specific data is limited, so the greatest weight should be placed on comparing the teams’ last five performances.