Mladá Boleslav vs Sparta Praha: match statistics

Sparta Praha are in better current form: they have collected 10 points from their last five matches, winning 3 games, while Mladá Boleslav have accumulated 7 points and suffered 2 defeats. During this period, the visitors scored 8 goals and conceded only 5, whereas the hosts found the net 10 times, but their defence allowed as many as 8 goals. In their only away match so far, Sparta lost, but they created chances worth an average of 1.84 xG, registered 15 shots and enjoyed 65% possession, indicating clear attacking control. Mladá Boleslav made a solid unbeaten start to the league campaign across their first two matches; however, their less consistent record over the last five outings and higher number of goals conceded increase the risk on their side. Sparta’s edge in current consistency and the quality of chances created gives them a slightly higher chance of securing an away victory.

Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate in the current campaign, and neither has kept a clean sheet yet. Mladá Boleslav score an average of 3.0 goals at home but concede 1.0, while Sparta score 1.0 goal away from home and concede as many as 3.0. Their attacking potential is supported by the xG figures: 1.44 for the hosts and 1.84 for the visitors, with 1.27 and 1.55 xG conceded defensively, respectively. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games, scoring an average of 2.0 and 1.6 goals. The odds on "BTTS - Yes" are further strengthened by the league BTTS average of 69%, as well as the fact that all previous matches involving both sides went over 2.5 goals and ended with goals scored by both teams.

Both teams have averaged 4.0 total goals in their league matches so far, with every game exceeding the 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goal lines. Mladá Boleslav have scored an average of 3.0 goals at home, while Sparta have conceded as many as 3.0 goals away from home, clearly strengthening the hosts’ attacking potential. However, the visitors create a solid number of chances, recording an average xG of 1.84 and 6.0 shots on target per match, while Boleslav have yet to keep a clean sheet. In their last five matches, both teams averaged 3.6 and 2.6 goals per game respectively, with over 2.5 goals landing in 80% of Boleslav’s matches and 60% of Sparta’s. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as both attacks regularly find the net and neither team has yet recorded a match below this line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Sparta win at full-time, as the visitors have been level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Mlada Boleslav. Boleslav start matches slightly more actively, averaging 1.0 goals before half-time compared with Sparta’s 0.4, so a home lead at the break remains a realistic alternative. After the interval, however, Sparta have the stronger arguments: in their last five matches, they averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded just 0.6, while the hosts recorded a second-half goal difference of 0. The visitors also create more chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.84 and an average of 6 shots on target, compared with Boleslav’s 1.44 xG and 4 shots on target. Sparta’s superior recent results, averaging 2.0 points per match against the hosts’ 1.4, further supports the forecast of a late turnaround in their favour.