Mławianka Mława vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki: match statistics

Both teams have lost all of their matches to date in their respective roles, but Lechia T. Mazowiecki offer greater attacking potential: away from home, they average 1.87 xG compared with Mławianka’s 1.47 xG at home. The visitors also register significantly more shots—16.5 per match versus 8 for the hosts—and hit the target more accurately, averaging 4.5 shots on target compared with 4. Mławianka are yet to score in a home fixture and have failed to convert any of their chances despite producing 1.47 xG, highlighting a clear problem with finishing. Both defences are vulnerable to errors, with neither side keeping a clean sheet and the hosts conceding an average of 1.70 xG compared with 1.52 for the visitors. However, the greater volume of chances created favours the away side. Lechia have also scored 7 goals overall this season compared with Mławianka’s 3, so despite their poor away form, they have slightly better chances of ending their losing streak.

The signal for goals from both sides is clear: this season, both Mławianka and Lechia have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, and neither team has kept a clean sheet. Over their last five games, this rate has still stood at 80% for both teams, with the hosts averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while the visitors have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Their attacking potential is supported by xG: Mławianka creates an average of 1.74 xG, while Lechia records 1.84 xG, with both defences allowing 1.68 and 1.78 xG respectively. The hosts are particularly dangerous at home, averaging 13 shots on target, but their average of 2.0 goals conceded indicates that the opposition should have genuine chances. BTTS - Yes is therefore more likely than the BTTS - No scenario, in which at least one team fails to score.

Both teams come into this match with a very open profile: in their last 5 matches, Mławianka scored an average of 1.4 goals and conceded 2.0, while Lechia scored 1.6 and conceded 1.8. The potential for chance creation is high at both ends, as the five-match average xG stands at 1.74 for the hosts and 1.84 for the visitors, with xG conceded at 1.68 and 1.78, respectively. In 80% of each team’s last five matches, at least 3 goals were scored, while both teams found the net in 80% of those fixtures. Another supporting factor is the league average of 3.55 goals, with 68% of matches producing at least three goals. The strongest signal points to Over 1.5 goals, as the combination of attacking quality and vulnerable defences clearly supports a scenario with at least two goals.

Mławianka have a clear edge in the home data: they have won 100% of their matches, averaging 5.0 goals scored and 13.0 shots on target, while Lechia have lost all of their away games. The signal for the hosts to lead at the break is very strong, as they average 4.0 goals scored before half-time and concede none, whereas the visitors were behind at half-time in 100% of their away matches, conceding an average of 1.5 goals. The quality of chances also favours Mławianka: their average xG is 2.28, while Lechia, despite an xG of 1.87, convert only 6% of their shots compared with 28% for the hosts. The last five matches are more evenly balanced, although the hosts still win more often—40% compared with 20%—and average 1.0 goal after the break to Lechia’s 0.6. The most likely scenario therefore remains Mławianka taking the lead before half-time and holding on to it until the final whistle.