Mławianka Mława vs Pelikan Łowicz: match statistics

Pelikan Łowicz are clearly in better form: they have recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while Mławianka Mława have won 3 times but also suffered 2 defeats. The visitors scored 12 goals during this period, 4 more than the hosts, confirming their greater attacking potential. Pelikan’s defensive record is equally impressive, conceding 4 goals in five matches compared with Mławianka’s 5. In the current campaign, both teams have won one match, but Pelikan have scored 3 goals to Mławianka’s 2. Home advantage limits the extent of the visitors’ edge, yet their more consistent form and superior goal difference point to a slightly higher probability of an away win.

The hosts’ seasonal data is very limited, but BTTS landed in 100% of their only included match, with 3 goals scored and 2 conceded. A much more representative five-match sample indicates that Mławianka average 1.6 goals, while Pelikan average as many as 2.4, conceding 1.0 and 0.8 goals respectively. Their attacking potential is supported by xG over the last five matches: 2.04 for the hosts and 1.43 for the visitors, compared with only 1.18 and 0.54 xG allowed by their defences. BTTS occurred in 60% of Mławianka’s recent matches and 40% of Pelikan’s, while the league’s high average of 3.89 goals and 78% of matches featuring goals for both sides further support a goal exchange. The strongest scenario therefore remains a goal for each team, although Pelikan’s solid recent defensive record limits confidence in the pick.

Data from the last five matches points to an attacking profile for both teams: Mławianka averaged 1.6 goals, while Pelikan recorded as many as 2.4. The combined goal average in these matches was 2.6 and 3.2 respectively, with over 2.5 goals scored in 60% of each team’s games. Mławianka generates an average of 2.04 xG, while Pelikan records 1.43 xG, supporting a projection close to 3.0 total goals in the match. The league is exceptionally high-scoring, averaging 3.89 goals per game, with 89% of matches finishing Over 2.5 goals, although the limited sample size for the home side calls for caution with higher lines. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5, as just two goals are needed to cover this line, and the current attacking potential of both sides clearly supports it.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Pelikan win at full-time, as the visitors have been level at the break in 100% of their last five matches. After the interval, Pelikan have averaged 2.0 goals, won the second half in 100% of their matches, and have not lost any of them. The visitors’ overall form is also stronger: they have won 80% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.4 goals and conceding just 0.8, compared with Mławianka’s 60% win rate and averages of 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The hosts can make strong starts, leading at the break in 50% of their recent matches, so outcomes involving their half-time lead still retain a significant share. However, Pelikan’s superiority in second-half results, combined with their defensive stability, primarily supports a turnaround after the interval in favour of the visitors.