Mławianka Mława vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.: match statistics

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. have a slight edge: they have won 2 of their last 5 away matches, while Mławianka have won just once in their last 5 home games. Across the teams’ last 5 matches, the visitors have conceded 7 goals compared with the hosts’ 17, pointing to greater defensive problems for Mławianka. Both sides average 1.6 goals in their respective home and away matches, but Polonia register more shots on target (5 vs. 4.33) and are less likely to finish without scoring (20% vs. 40%). Mławianka do, however, create chances with a higher average xG (1.86 vs. 1.54), so their chances of winning remain significant. With both teams conceding an average of 2.2 goals in these conditions, the visitors’ advantage is moderate rather than decisive.

Mławianka have seen both teams score in 100% of their home matches, while Polonia have done so in 80% of their away games—a strong signal in favour of BTTS - Yes. The teams score a similar average number of goals: 1.57 and 1.60 respectively, and neither has kept a clean sheet in these conditions. The hosts concede an average of 1.86 goals, while the visitors concede 2.20, giving each side a realistic chance to exploit the opposition’s defensive weaknesses. In their last 5 matches, Mławianka scored an average of 3.0 goals but conceded as many as 3.4, while Polonia scored and conceded 1.4 goals per game. The risk to BTTS - Yes is that Polonia failed to score in 20% of their away matches; however, the balance of the other indicators clearly favours both teams to score.

Mławianka score an average of 1.57 goals and concede 1.86, while Polonia score 1.60 and concede 2.20, pointing to goal-scoring potential on both sides. Over 1.5 goals landed in 100% of the home team's matches and 80% of the away team's; neither side has kept a clean sheet yet. Mławianka's last 5 matches averaged 6.4 goals, although their xG of 1.50 calls for caution before expecting such a high scoring rate to continue. Over 1.5 is therefore the strongest pick, with clearer backing in the data than Over 2.5, which landed in 71% of the home team's matches and 80% of the away team's.

A draw at half-time is a realistic starting point: Mławianka were level after 45 minutes in 50% of the matches analysed, rising to 60% across their last five. However, the hosts have the edge in the first half, averaging 0.67 goals while Polonia concede 1.6, so a Mławianka lead at the break remains an important alternative. After the interval, the balance of play favours the visitors: they score an average of 1.2 goals compared with Mławianka’s 0.83, while the hosts conceded an average of 2.6 goals in second halves across their last five matches. Polonia have won 40% of their matches, compared with Mławianka’s 14%, increasing the chance that they will turn a half-time draw into a victory. The X/2 pick best combines the hosts’ frequent half-time draws with the visitors’ stronger second-half performances, although Polonia’s weaker first-half defending raises the risk of a 1/2 scenario.