Modena vs Carrarese: match statistics
Modena is displaying significantly better home form with a 42% win rate at home and a solid goal difference (+6). The hosts score an average of 1.42 goals per home match while conceding just 0.92, confirming their defensive stability with a 42% clean sheet rate. Carrarese has very poor away results – only a 17% win rate and as many as 50% defeats, conceding an average of 2 goals per away match with a -9 goal difference. The xG values also favor the hosts (1.71 vs 1.31), indicating their advantage in creating chances. Modena has earned 1.6 points per match in their last five games, while Carrarese only 1.4, further confirming the home side's advantage. Considering all these factors, a Modena victory is the most likely scenario, although a draw cannot be ruled out due to Carrarese's tendency to share points (33% draws away).
Modena vs Carrarese: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Modena played Carrarese in Serie B (Italy). The match was played on 14 February 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Modena: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Carrarese: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Modena scores 1.29 and concedes 0.79 goals per match. Carrarese scores 1.29 and concedes 1.38. League average: 2.47 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Modena 42%, Carrarese 50%. Over 2.5: Modena 42%, Carrarese 54%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Modena has higher xG: 1.80 vs 1.43. Modena: 16.6 shots per match, Carrarese: 13.0.
Match halves
Modena: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.79. Carrarese: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Modena: 76-90+ (8 goals). Carrarese: 61-75 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.47 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Modena is displaying significantly better home form with a 42% win rate at home and a solid goal difference (+6). The hosts score an average of 1.42 goals per home match while conceding just 0.92, confirming their defensive stability with a 42% clean sheet rate. Carrarese has very poor away results – only a 17% win rate and as many as 50% defeats, conceding an average of 2 goals per away match with a -9 goal difference. The xG values also favor the hosts (1.71 vs 1.31), indicating their advantage in creating chances. Modena has earned 1.6 points per match in their last five games, while Carrarese only 1.4, further confirming the home side's advantage. Considering all these factors, a Modena victory is the most likely scenario, although a draw cannot be ruled out due to Carrarese's tendency to share points (33% draws away).
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Modena | Carrarese | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Modena is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Modena · 1.4 pts / match - Carrarese
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Modena is 75% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.79 goals / match - Modena · 1.38 goals / match - Carrarese
Modena scores in 71% of matches (17 of 24 matches), while Carrarese keeps a clean sheet in 38% (9 of 24 matches).
Carrarese scores in 67% of matches (16 of 24 matches), while Modena keeps a clean sheet in 46% (11 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Modena
Over / Under - Carrarese
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Modena is 28% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - Modena · 1.08 pts / match - Carrarese
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Modena - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Carrarese - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Modena
Carrarese
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Modena | Liga | Carrarese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.08 | 2.47 | ▲ 2.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 42% | 55% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 47% | ▲ 54% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 46% | 27% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 70% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 74% | • 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Modena 0 - 1 - 0 Carrarese. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Modena vs Carrarese?
The Serie B match finished Modena 2:0 Carrarese. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Modena vs Carrarese?
Modena score 1.29 goals per game on average and Carrarese 1.29. The Serie B average is 2.47 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Modena's matches and 50% of Carrarese's.
What form are Modena and Carrarese in?
Over the last 5 games Modena have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Carrarese 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Modena vs Carrarese?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Modena vs Carrarese: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.