Modena vs Cesena: match statistics
Modena has looked decidedly better in recent weeks, earning 1.8 points per match in their last five outings, whereas Cesena is in fatal form with just 0.2 points per match and a streak of four defeats. The hosts hold a clear advantage in home games with a 43% win rate and a positive goal difference (+7), as well as better xG statistics (1.7 vs 1.04). In away matches, Cesena concedes an average of 1.43 goals per game with a negative goal difference (-3) and only 7% clean sheets, making them highly susceptible to conceding. Modena also commands better average possession (52% vs 50%) and higher shot conversion in home matches, which should translate into control of the game. Taking all these factors into account, I predict a victory for the hosts, although Cesena has the potential to cause an upset, hence I leave some probability for a draw or an away win.
Modena vs Cesena: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Modena played Cesena in Serie B (Italy). The match was played on 7 March 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
Modena: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Cesena: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Modena scores 1.32 and concedes 0.86 goals per match. Cesena scores 1.29 and concedes 1.46. League average: 2.52 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Modena 46%, Cesena 68%. Over 2.5: Modena 46%, Cesena 57%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Modena has higher xG: 1.76 vs 1.46. Modena: 16.1 shots per match, Cesena: 13.0.
Match halves
Modena: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 0.75. Cesena: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.64.
Goals by minute
Modena: 76-90+ (9 goals). Cesena: 31-45+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.52 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Modena has looked decidedly better in recent weeks, earning 1.8 points per match in their last five outings, whereas Cesena is in fatal form with just 0.2 points per match and a streak of four defeats. The hosts hold a clear advantage in home games with a 43% win rate and a positive goal difference (+7), as well as better xG statistics (1.7 vs 1.04). In away matches, Cesena concedes an average of 1.43 goals per game with a negative goal difference (-3) and only 7% clean sheets, making them highly susceptible to conceding. Modena also commands better average possession (52% vs 50%) and higher shot conversion in home matches, which should translate into control of the game. Taking all these factors into account, I predict a victory for the hosts, although Cesena has the potential to cause an upset, hence I leave some probability for a draw or an away win.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Modena | Cesena | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Modena is 800% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Modena · 0.2 pts / match - Cesena
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Modena is 70% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.86 goals / match - Modena · 1.46 goals / match - Cesena
Modena scores in 75% of matches (21 of 28 matches), while Cesena keeps a clean sheet in 14% (4 of 28 matches).
Cesena scores in 82% of matches (23 of 28 matches), while Modena keeps a clean sheet in 43% (12 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Modena
Over / Under - Cesena
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Modena is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.43 pts / match - Modena · 1.36 pts / match - Cesena
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Modena - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Cesena - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Modena
Cesena
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Modena | Liga | Cesena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.18 | 2.52 | ▲ 2.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 46% | 55% | ▲ 68% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 46% | 48% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 43% | 26% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | • 71% | 71% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 76% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Modena 0 - 0 - 1 Cesena. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Modena vs Cesena?
The Serie B match finished Modena 0:0 Cesena. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Modena vs Cesena?
Modena score 1.32 goals per game on average and Cesena 1.29. The Serie B average is 2.52 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 46% of Modena's matches and 68% of Cesena's.
What form are Modena and Cesena in?
Over the last 5 games Modena have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Cesena 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Modena vs Cesena?
The statistical background for Modena vs Cesena — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.