Modena vs Frosinone: match statistics

Frosinone is the favorite in this match: they sit 2nd in the table with 19 wins this season versus Modena’s 14, and have scored 65 goals while conceding 33, whereas Modena have 46 scored and 31 conceded. In their last 5 games Frosinone are unbeaten (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 10 goals and averaging 2.2 points per game, while Modena in their last 5 have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, 9 goals and 1.6 points per game. At home Modena average 1.47 goals scored, 0.82 conceded and have xG 1.61 with xG against 0.99 and 4.82 shots on target; Frosinone away score 1.82, concede 1.06 and have xG 1.67 with xG against 1.68 and 5.35 shots on target and a higher conversion rate 12% vs Modena’s 10%. Key advantages for the visitors are superior offensive efficiency (65 goals on the season and 12% conversion) and a very low away loss rate (6% vs Modena’s 29% home loss rate), while Modena’s main strength is a solid home defence (0.82 goals conceded on average and 47% clean sheets). Considering these figures, my model assigns a 55% probability to a Frosinone win, 25% to a draw and 20% to a Modena win.

A strong signal for BTTS - Yes is visible in the seasonal indicators: Modena has BTTS 53% and Frosinone 65%, versus a league average of 55%. An even stronger argument is recent form — both teams record BTTS at 80% over the last 5 matches; in that period Modena scored 9 and conceded 7 goals, while Frosinone scored 10 and conceded 5. Offensive metrics and xG support the likelihood of goals from both sides: Modena xG_for 2.04 with 6.65 shots on target per game, Frosinone xG_for 1.67 with 5.35 shots on target, and xG_against 1.35 and 1.68 respectively. Clean sheets are not certain — Modena has a clean sheet in 41% of matches (concedes in 59%), and Frosinone only in 29% (concedes in 71%). Considering 53% vs 65% season BTTS, 80% in the last 5, and supporting xG and shot stats, I recommend BTTS = Yes.

I estimate expected goals based on xG: Modena has xG_for 2.04 and Frosinone xG_against 1.68, the average gives 1.86 expected goals for Modena; Frosinone has xG_for 1.67 and Modena xG_against 1.35, averaging 1.51 for the away side, which totals 3.37 expected goals. This season Modena has gone over 1.5 in 88% of matches and over 2.5 in 65% of fixtures, Frosinone 82% for 1.5 and 53% for 2.5 — these proportions together with the 3.37 total forecast point to a higher probability of Over 2.5 goals. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Modena recorded Over 2.5 in 80% of games, Frosinone in 60%, and BTTS is 53% for Modena and 65% for Frosinone (with BTTS 80% for both in their last 5), which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Based on this I assign 88% probability for Over 1.5, 64% for Over 2.5 and 36% for Over 3.5; the best betting value is Over 2.5 given the 3.37 expected goals and strong support from season-long and last-5 metrics.

I am predicting a half-time draw and a Modena win after full-time (X/1). Modena has clearly superior offensive metrics: xG 2.04 versus Frosinone’s 1.67 and an average of 19.12 shots per match versus 15.47, providing greater chance creation. The home side are particularly strong after the break — they score on average 1.18 goals in the second half versus 0.76 for the visitors, have a positive second-half record of +10 compared to +3 for Frosinone and the most goals in the 46–60 minute window (9 vs 4), which favors a turnaround after half-time. However, at Half-Time Frosinone have better numbers: on average 1.06 goals by the break versus 0.82 for Modena, and in the last 5 rounds the visitors have had a superior half-time record (on average 2.2 versus 1.8), so a draw at the break is realistic. Modena also concede only 0.29 goals before the break versus 0.47 for their opponents, which increases the chance of maintaining the draw and then taking the initiative after the break.