Modena vs Reggiana: match statistics

Modena holds a clear home advantage in key metrics: at home they average 1.44 goals scored and concede 0.89 per match, with average xG 1.63 versus xG against 1.06 and 4.94 shots on target per game. Reggiana are significantly weaker away — they score just 0.78 goals per match, concede 1.72, have xG 1.02 versus xG against 1.92 and register as many as 39% of matches without scoring. Differences in attacking efficiency and defense are also reflected in season percentages: Modena won 44% of home matches and kept 44% clean sheets, while Reggiana won only 17% of away matches and kept 22% clean sheets. The last five fixtures narrow the home advantage — Modena are 0-2-3 (5:9) and Reggiana 1-1-3 (4:8) — but that does not negate Modena’s quality edge in xG and chance creation. Considering superior xG (1.63 vs 1.02), higher shots on target (4.94 vs 2.83) and a lower share of scoreless games (17% vs 39%), I assess Modena with a 65% chance to win, 20% for a draw and 15% for Reggiana.

Modena has a seasonal BTTS rate of 61% versus Reggiana's 50% and the league average of 54%, providing initial support for a both-teams-to-score scenario. In Modena's last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 80% of games, while Reggiana recorded 40%; additionally, in those 5 matches Modena averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, and Reggiana 0.8 scored with 1.6 conceded, indicating the hosts are more frequently involved in Goal/Goal outcomes. Statistically Modena creates more chances: recent xG 1.67 vs 0.99 for Reggiana, seasonal xG 1.21 vs 1.02 and average shots on target 3.61 to 2.83, which increases the probability that Reggiana will score at least once while remaining at risk of conceding. A counterpoint is that Reggiana fail to score in 39% of matches (vs Modena 22%) and have a seasonal scoring rate of only 0.78 goals per game, which lowers BTTS chances; on the other hand Reggiana concede on average 1.72 goals per game and have 54 goals conceded, so vulnerability to Modena scoring remains high. Weighing these signals I favour 'BTTS - Yes' with a 65% confidence vs 35% for 'No', because strong home indicators for Modena (BTTS 61% and 80% in the last 5) and Reggiana's high goals conceded outweigh the visitors' low finishing efficiency.

The xG-based model gives Modena 1.57 expected goals (attacking xG 1.21 and xG conceded by Reggiana 1.92 -> (1.21+1.92)/2 ≈ 1.57), and Reggiana 1.26 (attacking xG 1.02 and xG conceded by Modena 1.51 -> (1.02+1.51)/2 ≈ 1.26), totaling 2.83 expected goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.83 implies probability of over 1.5 goals ≈77% (P(total≥2) ≈0.774) and over 2.5 goals ≈54% (P(total≥3) ≈0.538). Season-long metrics confirm a goals-prone tendency: Over1.5 occurred for Modena in 72% of matches and for Reggiana in 67%, and Modena recorded Over2.5 in 60% of their last 5 games. Modena averages 11.0 shots and 3.61 on target with a 10% conversion, Reggiana 9.61 shots and 2.83 on target with an 8% conversion, while clean sheets are low (28% and 22%), increasing the risk of conceded goals. Based on this, the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (side: over, line: 1.5) — high model probability ≈77% supported by season figures 72%/67%, giving an edge on this line.

The most likely HT/FT is a draw at half-time and Modena to win full-time (X/1). Modena drew at the break in 56% of their home matches, while Reggiana had a half-time draw in 44% of their away fixtures, giving a strong signal for a draw in the first 45 minutes. After the break the hosts perform better: Modena collected 19 points in second halves and averages 1.06 points in the second half, whereas Reggiana has 10 points and 0.56 points in that phase, which suggests Modena more frequently stages a turnaround or wins after the interval. Additionally, Modena generates more chances (on average 11 shots and 3.61 shots on target at home with a 10% conversion rate and xG 1.21), compared to Reggiana (9.61 shots, 2.83 on target, 8% conversion and the defence concedes xG 1.92), and the hosts score 1.11 goals at home versus Reggiana conceding 1.72 per match and the visitors suffering 67% of defeats on the road, therefore X/1 is the most probable outcome.