Moi Kompong Dewa vs Svay Rieng: match statistics

Svay Rieng is the clear favorite: they sit 1st with 19 wins and 73 goals this season versus Moi Kompong Dewa’s 9 wins and 33 goals. Match metrics confirm the superiority — the visitors average 3.08 goals per away match (avg xG 2.18), while the hosts score 1.08 at home (xG 1.4) and concede 1.67 per match versus Svay Rieng’s 0.77 conceded. Svay Rieng generates far more chances: 18.23 average shots and 7.77 on target away with a 17% conversion, whereas Moi Kompong Dewa have 11.82 shots and 4.45 on target at home with a 9% conversion. In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 5 goals, won 1 and average 0.8 pts/match; the visitors scored 11 goals, have 3 wins and 2 draws and average 2.2 pts/match; the hosts failed to score in 50% of home games, the visitors only in 8%. Considering the attacking advantage (73 vs 33 seasonal goals), higher xG (2.18 vs 1.4) and more stable away defence, I predict a victory for the visitors.

Both teams have season BTTS rates above the league: Moi Kompong Dewa 58% and Svay Rieng 62%, giving a baseline around 60% versus the league value of 56%. Strong attacking profile — seasonal goals per game 2.75 (home) and 3.08 (away), with xG at 1.95 vs 2.18 (total 4.13), well above the league average 3.15, indicating a high probability of goals from both sides. Defensively, clean sheet rates are 42% (home) and 38% (away), but in the last 5 matches the home team conceded on average 2.0 goals while the away team only 0.6, suggesting the home side is more vulnerable and increasing the chance of BTTS. Additionally, both teams have 60% BTTS in their last five matches and high over 2.5 rates of 75% and 77%, reinforcing the both-teams-to-score scenario. Based on this I assign 68% for 'Yes' and 32% for 'No' — the strongest signals are the season 58%/62%, total xG 4.13 and recent form (60% BTTS), while the only meaningful restraint is Svay Rieng's low average goals conceded 0.77.

Combined xG for both teams is 1.95 (Moi Kompong Dewa) + 2.18 (Svay Rieng) = 4.13, indicating a high potential for goal-scoring opportunities. Home side averages 2.75 goals at home, visitors 3.08 on the road; hosts record 5.92 shots on target, visitors 7.77, confirming offensive pressure from both teams. With a combined mean of 4.13 the Poisson model estimates approximately 91.8% probability of Over 1.5, about 78.0% for Over 2.5 and around 59.2% for Over 3.5 goals, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Seasonal metrics support this: Over 1.5 occurred in 92% of matches for both teams, Over 2.5 in 75–77%, and BTTS in 58–62% of games. Therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the safest selection, with Over 2.5 as a valuable secondary scenario.

I project Svay Rieng to lead at the break and win the match (HT/FT = 2/2). In their last five matches Svay Rieng led at the break in 80% of cases (4/5), while Moi Kompong Dewa led at the break in only 20% (1/5) and were trailing at halftime in 60% (3/5). The visitors have a stronger second half: they average 1.69 goals after the break compared to the hosts’ 1.17 (scored_2hg_avg_away 1.69 vs home 1.17), and in minutes 76–90 Svay Rieng have scored 12 goals versus the hosts’ 6, which favors a turnaround after halftime. Over the full match Svay Rieng average 3.08 goals with xG=2.18, while Moi Kompong Dewa average 2.75 with xG=1.95; the visitors also concede fewer goals on average (0.77 vs 1.08), which gives them the edge. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the 2/2 scenario (42%) and the second to X/2 (23%), additionally supported by a high frequency of goals before halftime (hosts have 92% of matches with at least one goal by halftime vs 77% for the visitors).