Molde vs Brann: match statistics
Molde vs Brann: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Molde played Brann in Eliteserien (Norway). The match was played on 18 July 2026. Venue: Aker Stadion. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Molde: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Brann: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Molde scores 1.67 and concedes 1.25 goals per match. Brann scores 2.00 and concedes 1.62. League average: 2.95 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Molde 58%, Brann 85%. Over 2.5: Molde 50%, Brann 85%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Brann has higher xG: 1.62 vs 1.53. Molde: 13.3 shots per match, Brann: 13.2.
Match halves
Molde: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.67. Brann: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Molde: 31-45+ (6 goals). Brann: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eliteserien: 2.95 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 4-0-0. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Molde has a significant home advantage: at home they win 83% of matches, score on average 2.33 goals and concede only 0.67 goals per game. Their home xG is 1.58 with 4.83 shots on target per game, while opponent xG is 1.31, indicating superiority in the quality of chances. Brann scores an average of 2.43 goals away but defends worse — conceding 1.86 goals on average, has only 14% clean sheets and a 57% loss rate on the road. In the last 5 matches Molde averages 1.4 points per game and Brann 1.2, with Molde’s home goal difference at +10 versus Brann’s +4 away, which favors the home side. Due to a more stable defense, higher xG and better home win rate, I assess the probabilities as: Molde win 60%, draw 20%, Brann win 20%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams feature very high season BTTS rates: Molde 83% and Brann 86%, strongly indicating both sides typically score at least once. In the last 5 matches Brann’s signal is extreme — 100% BTTS, while Molde is 60% in the same period, which together increases the likelihood of goal exchange. Offensively Brann scores 2.43 goals per match with a 20% conversion and xG 1.43; Molde has 1.5 goals with 10% conversion and xG 1.84; the defenses also leave space (Molde concedes 1.33 goals and xG against 1.22, Brann concedes 1.86 and xG against 1.74). Clean sheets are rare (Molde 0%, Brann 14%) and over 2.5 is frequent (83% and 86%), therefore based on season 83%/86%, last 5 matches 60%/100%, high xG for both teams and low clean sheet share I select BTTS = Yes with probability 85% versus 15% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Combined xG metrics and opponents’ defensive measures yield total expected goals of approx. 3.12: about 1.79 for Molde (attacking xG 1.84 vs opponent xG conceded 1.74) and 1.33 for Brann (attacking xG 1.43 vs Molde conceded xG 1.22). Seasonal stats confirm a tendency for goals — Molde has 83% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Brann 100%, and both teams to score in 83% and 86% of games respectively. A Poisson distribution with λ=3.12 gives ~82% probability of at least 2 goals, ~60% for 3+ goals and ~38% for 4+ goals. Additionally, Brann averages 2.43 goals per match and posts a 20% shot conversion rate versus Molde’s 10%, which increases the risk of quick strikes and supports an open game. Based on this, the strongest and most reliable pick is Over 1.5 as the main selection; Over 2.5 remains a moderately likely option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Molde led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%), and in those games they scored an average of 1.0 goals by half-time versus 0.6 for Brann, indicating a home advantage in the first half. Over the season Molde posts higher xG (1.84 vs 1.43) and at home averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Brann has a higher goals-scored average (2.43) but also higher goals conceded (1.86). Both teams frequently score (BTTS 83% for Molde, 86% for Brann) and Brann are more efficient with shots (conversion 20% vs 10% for Molde), so they can threaten in the second half, but the home league advantage of 64% and Molde’s higher shots average (14.5 vs 12.0) support maintaining the lead. Taking this into account, the most likely and strongest signal is Molde leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Molde | Brann | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Molde is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Molde · 1.2 pts / match - Brann
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Brann is 20% better for: goals scored per match.
1.67 goals / match - Molde · 2 goals / match - Brann
Molde is 30% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.25 goals / match - Molde · 1.62 goals / match - Brann
Molde scores in 83% of matches (10 of 12 matches), while Brann keeps a clean sheet in 8% (1 of 13 matches).
Brann scores in 92% of matches (12 of 13 matches), while Molde keeps a clean sheet in 25% (3 of 12 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Molde
Over / Under - Brann
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Molde is 49% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.83 pts / match - Molde · 1.23 pts / match - Brann
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Molde - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Brann - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Molde
Brann
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eliteserien).
Teams vs league
| Molde | Liga | Brann | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.92 | 2.95 | ▲ 3.62 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 54% | ▲ 85% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 56% | ▲ 85% |
| Clean sheets | • 25% | 25% | ▼ 8% |
| Goal before half-time | • 83% | 82% | ▲ 92% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 78% | • 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Molde 4 - 0 - 0 Brann. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Molde vs Brann?
The Eliteserien match finished Molde 1:2 Brann. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Brann?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Molde won 4, Brann won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Molde vs Brann?
Molde score 1.67 goals per game on average and Brann 2.00. The Eliteserien average is 2.95 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Molde's matches and 85% of Brann's.
What form are Molde and Brann in?
Over the last 5 games Molde have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Brann 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Molde vs Brann?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Molde vs Brann: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.