Montedio Yamagata vs Ventforet Kofu: match statistics

Montedio Yamagata sit 2nd, while Ventforet Kofu are only 16th, with the two teams’ records after four matches standing at 3 wins and 1 loss, and 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses, respectively. The hosts have won both of their matches at home so far, averaging 2 goals scored and conceding none, whereas Kofu have lost both away fixtures with a 0:5 goal difference. Yamagata create significantly more danger at home, averaging 18.5 shots and 6.5 shots on target per match, compared with 10.5 shots and 2.5 on target for the visitors. The hosts also have the edge in chance quality, with an average xG of 2.10 versus 1.34 for Ventforet, while the visitors concede as many as 2.5 goals per away match. Although Kofu enjoy an average of 58% possession, they have failed to score in both away games, making a Yamagata win the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal is Ventforet Kofu’s away record so far: the team has yet to score an away goal, with 100% of their away matches ending without a goal for Kofu and a BTTS rate of 0%. Montedio Yamagata score an average of 1.5 goals at home, while Kofu concede as many as 2.5 goals per away match, making a home goal clearly likely. However, the visitors do have some underlying numbers suggesting a potential breakthrough, as their average xG stands at 1.34, while Yamagata allow opponents 1.64 xG and have failed to keep a clean sheet in any home match. Nevertheless, BTTS has landed in only 20% of Yamagata’s last five matches, while their opponents scored an average of 1.2 goals against them, so it is more likely that at least one side—primarily Kofu—will fail to score.

Montedio Yamagata have scored an average of 2.0 goals in their last 5 matches, while Ventforet Kofu have conceded 1.6 goals per game over the same period. The hosts have also created chances worth 1.83 xG per match, whereas the visitors’ defense has allowed opponents 1.68 xG. Kofu have recently averaged 1.2 goals scored, but have yet to score away from home this season, limiting the projection for the visitors to 0.95 goals. Both teams have had 100% of their matches feature at least 2 goals in the available season data, while the league average stands at 2.78 goals. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 goals: the hosts’ attacking potential should be enough to push the match beyond this low line.

The strongest signal points to a Montedio Yamagata win in both halves, as the hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Ventforet Kofu were trailing at half-time in as many as 80% of their last five games. Montedio were leading after 45 minutes in 40% of that sample and did not go into the break as the losing side, whereas Kofu scored just 0.2 goals before half-time while conceding 1.2. The hosts also have a clear first-half quality advantage: they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, compared with the visitors’ figures of 0.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. Across the full match, Montedio have recently averaged 2.0 goals per game, while Kofu have conceded 1.6, further strengthening the hosts’ chances of maintaining their lead. A draw at half-time followed by a Montedio win remains a significant alternative, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their recent matches.