Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive: match statistics
Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Monterey Bay played El Paso Locomotive in USL Championship (United States). The match was played on 21 June 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Monterey Bay: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. El Paso Locomotive: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Monterey Bay scores 1.00 and concedes 1.69 goals per match. El Paso Locomotive scores 1.92 and concedes 1.83. League average: 2.74 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Monterey Bay 54%, El Paso Locomotive 83%. Over 2.5: Monterey Bay 54%, El Paso Locomotive 83%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
El Paso Locomotive has higher xG: 1.38 vs 1.22. Monterey Bay: 9.6 shots per match, El Paso Locomotive: 11.9.
Match halves
Monterey Bay: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.69. El Paso Locomotive: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Monterey Bay: 76-90+ (4 goals). El Paso Locomotive: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL Championship: 2.74 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 0-3-2. Average goals 2.40, BTTS 60%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a win for the home side (Monterey Bay) based on a clear uptick in form over the last five matches: Monterey have scored 9 goals and recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (PPG 2), while El Paso in the same period have scored 6 goals and had 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (PPG 1). Season-long figures still favor the visitors — El Paso have 23 goals this season versus Monterey's 13, and away they score on average 2.17 goals per game with a conversion rate of 19% compared to 1.29 and 12% for the hosts; visitors average 11.17 shots (4.33 on target) per away game, Monterey 10.71 (4.0 on target) at home. In terms of xG, both teams show similar attacking expected chances (xG For 1.33), but defensively Monterey look more stable at their stadium — the hosts have average xG against 1.19 and concede 1.14 goals per game, whereas El Paso away have a higher xG against 1.75 despite officially conceding 1.00 goal per away match. Additionally, El Paso have never had a goalless away game (FTS 0%), and Monterey have failed to score in 43% of home matches, however the hosts' last 5 games have yielded 9 goals scored and only 5 conceded, indicating improved finishing and defensive solidity. On that basis I give Monterey a slight edge, expecting a tight but home-advantage match.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistics strongly support BTTS - Yes: Monterey Bay has a season BTTS rate of 100% and 60% in the last 5 matches, while El Paso has 67% seasonally and 80% in the last 5. Monterey Bay concedes an average of 2.67 goals per game this season (22 conceded) and has 0% clean sheets, whereas El Paso concedes 1.0 goal seasonally (22 conceded) but in the last 5 matches conceded an average of 1.6 goals with xG against 1.81, indicating defensive vulnerability. Offensively El Paso scores 2.17 goals per game this season (23 scored) with xG 1.33, and Monterey averages 1.67 goals with xG 1.44; both teams generate chances numerically (average shots 12.67 and 11.17, shots on target 4.67 and 4.33). Additionally, both teams have a high share of matches over 2.5 goals (83% seasonally), and the league averages 2.74 goals per game, which increases the likelihood of goal exchanges. Based on this, I recommend BTTS = Yes (80%) vs 20% for No, because the aggregate signals (100% vs 67% season BTTS, last5 60% vs 80%, high number of goals conceded and low clean sheet rate) strongly favor both teams scoring.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Season statistics point to high-scoring matches: Monterey averages 1.67 goals scored and concedes 2.67 per game, while El Paso averages 2.17 scored and concedes 1.00. Both teams have 100% of matches over 1.5 goals this season; Monterey has goals in both halves in 100% of matches, El Paso in 67%. Based on xG: (1.44+1.75)/2=1.60 expected goals for Monterey and (1.33+1.38)/2=1.36 for El Paso, the combined projection is 2.96 goals, which strongly supports Over 1.5 and also favors Over 2.5. The seasonal percentage of matches over 2.5 is 83% for both teams, although in the last 5 matches this rate dropped to 40%, therefore I estimate Over 2.5 at 78% probability. Over 3.5 is less certain: Monterey has 83% of season matches over 3.5, El Paso only 33%, and the projected 2.96 goals is below 3.5, so I rate Over 3.5 at 45%; the strongest signal is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
El Paso led at half-time in 4 matches (67%) versus just 1 match for Monterey (17%), and the average first-half goals are 1.5 for the visitors vs 0.67 for the hosts — a strong signal for an El Paso lead after 45 minutes. The visitors win 50% of matches this season compared to Monterey’s 17%, and El Paso scores an average of 2.17 goals per game while Monterey concedes 2.67 on average, which favors an away Full-Time victory. Monterey at home records 100% of games with both teams scoring, and xG is similar: 1.44 for Monterey vs 1.33 for El Paso, so the hosts have the potential to score even if trailing at the break. Considering El Paso’s 13 points gained in halves versus Monterey’s 5 points and the visitors’ dominance in half-time statistics, the most secure HT/FT appears to be 2/2, with a lower probability of a draw or a Monterey turnaround.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Monterey Bay | El Paso Locomotive | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Monterey Bay is 200% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Monterey Bay · 0.6 pts / match - El Paso Locomotive
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
El Paso Locomotive is 92% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Monterey Bay · 1.92 goals / match - El Paso Locomotive
Monterey Bay is 8% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.69 goals / match - Monterey Bay · 1.83 goals / match - El Paso Locomotive
Monterey Bay scores in 62% of matches (8 of 13 matches), while El Paso Locomotive keeps a clean sheet in 17% (2 of 12 matches).
El Paso Locomotive scores in 100% of matches (12 of 12 matches), while Monterey Bay keeps a clean sheet in 15% (2 of 13 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Monterey Bay
Over / Under - El Paso Locomotive
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
El Paso Locomotive is 39% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.08 pts / match - Monterey Bay · 1.5 pts / match - El Paso Locomotive
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Monterey Bay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 23%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
El Paso Locomotive - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 33%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Monterey Bay
El Paso Locomotive
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| Monterey Bay | Liga | El Paso Locomotive | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.69 | 2.74 | ▲ 3.75 |
| Both teams scored | • 54% | 55% | ▲ 83% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 54% | 51% | ▲ 83% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 28% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 62% | 67% | ▲ 92% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 78% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Monterey Bay 0 - 3 - 2 El Paso Locomotive. Average goals 2.40, both teams scored in 60% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive?
The USL Championship match finished Monterey Bay 1:0 El Paso Locomotive. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Monterey Bay and El Paso Locomotive?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Monterey Bay won 0, El Paso Locomotive won 2 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 2.40 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive?
Monterey Bay score 1.00 goals per game on average and El Paso Locomotive 1.92. The USL Championship average is 2.74 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 54% of Monterey Bay's matches and 83% of El Paso Locomotive's.
What form are Monterey Bay and El Paso Locomotive in?
Over the last 5 games Monterey Bay have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and El Paso Locomotive 0-3-2 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.