Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX: match statistics
Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Monterey Bay played Sporting JAX in USL Championship (United States). The match was played on 11 June 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Monterey Bay: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Sporting JAX: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Monterey Bay scores 1.00 and concedes 1.73 goals per match. Sporting JAX scores 1.09 and concedes 2.36. League average: 2.74 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Monterey Bay 55%, Sporting JAX 55%. Over 2.5: Monterey Bay 55%, Sporting JAX 64%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Monterey Bay has higher xG: 1.17 vs 0.90. Monterey Bay: 9.4 shots per match, Sporting JAX: 7.5.
Match halves
Monterey Bay: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.73. Sporting JAX: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.45.
Goals by minute
Monterey Bay: 46-60 (3 goals). Sporting JAX: 31-45+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL Championship: 2.74 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Monterey Bay holds a clear advantage in chance creation and home metrics: averaging 10.33 shots and 3.67 on-target per match with xG 1.28, while Sporting JAX on the road records 5.5 shots, 2 on target and xG 0.75. The hosts have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 per game), which equals their total for the season (11), whereas the visitors have scored 9 in their last 5 and average just 0.67 goals per away match. Defensively Sporting concedes 2.0 goals on average away with an average xG against of 2.06, while Monterey concedes only 1.17 goals per home match, giving the hosts the defensive edge. Additionally, the visitors have no away wins (0% away victories) and lose 83% of their away games, while Monterey win 33% of home fixtures, so statistically the hosts are favored. Considering the 10.33 vs 5.5 shots advantage, higher xG (1.28 vs 0.75) and lower average goals conceded (1.17 vs 2.0), I predict a Monterey Bay victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Historical and recent form strongly support BTTS: Monterey Bay has a season rate of matches with both teams scoring at 60% and Sporting JAX 50%, while in the last 5 matches these rates are 80% and 60% respectively. Monterey Bay concedes an average of 2.8 goals per match this season, Sporting JAX concedes 2.0, and in the last 5 matches both teams conceded 1.8 goals each, indicating defensive weaknesses on both sides. Scoring form shows Monterey Bay scores 1.6 goals per game this season and 2.2 in the last 5, while Sporting increased from 0.67 this season to 1.8 in the last 5; xG supports this: attacking xG 1.08 for Monterey and 0.75 for Sporting, and xG against 1.79 and 2.06 suggest room for goals. Additionally both teams have 0% clean sheets this season, Monterey averages 9.8 shots and 3.2 on target versus Sporting’s 5.5 and 2.0, and at home Over 2.5 is 80%, which together increases the likelihood of goals at both ends. Based on this I back BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 80% versus 20% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG- and recent form-based model predicts a total of 2.79 expected goals: 1.56 for Monterey Bay and 1.23 for Sporting JAX. Monterey Bay concedes on average 2.8 goals per game, Sporting JAX concedes 2.0; both teams have 0% clean sheets, and BTTS occurs in 60% of home matches and 50% of away matches, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Monterey averages 9.8 shots and 3.2 on target with a 16% conversion rate, Sporting JAX has 5.5 shots and 2.0 on target with a 12% conversion; season attacking xG is 1.08 (Monterey) and 0.75 (Sporting) versus xG against of 1.79 and 2.06 respectively, so chances are being created and the defenses look vulnerable. Poisson calculations with λ=2.79 yield about 77% for Over 1.5, ~53% for Over 2.5 and ~31% for Over 3.5, and seasonal over 1.5 rates (80%/67%) and over 2.5 (80%/50%) support this trend. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (probability ~77%), therefore I recommend backing the Over line at 1.5 as the most likely and valuable option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back 1/1 (Monterey Bay leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time) because the hosts have a clear offensive advantage: xG 1.08 vs 0.75, on average 9.8 shots vs 5.5 and 3.2 shots on target vs 2.0 for the visitors. At Half-Time Monterey Bay averages 1.2 goals vs 0.17 for the away side, and the hosts led at the break in 40% of matches (2 of the last 5), which strongly supports an HT lead. However, bear in mind Monterey Bay concede an average of 2.0 goals in the second half and their matches have a 100% chance of at least one goal after the break, so a lead at the interval can be jeopardized. For this reason I assign 30% to 1/1 as the strongest scenario, but also a significant 18% to 1/X and 16% to X/1 as realistic alternatives.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Monterey Bay | Sporting JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Monterey Bay is 200% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Monterey Bay · 0.4 pts / match - Sporting JAX
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Sporting JAX is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Monterey Bay · 1.09 goals / match - Sporting JAX
Monterey Bay is 36% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.73 goals / match - Monterey Bay · 2.36 goals / match - Sporting JAX
Monterey Bay scores in 64% of matches (7 of 11 matches), while Sporting JAX keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 11 matches).
Sporting JAX scores in 55% of matches (6 of 11 matches), while Monterey Bay keeps a clean sheet in 18% (2 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Monterey Bay
Over / Under - Sporting JAX
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Sporting JAX is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Monterey Bay · 1.09 pts / match - Sporting JAX
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Monterey Bay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 18%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Sporting JAX - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 0%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Monterey Bay
Sporting JAX
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| Monterey Bay | Liga | Sporting JAX | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.73 | 2.74 | ▲ 3.45 |
| Both teams scored | • 55% | 55% | • 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 55% | 53% | ▲ 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 28% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 55% | 68% | ▲ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 91% | 79% | ▲ 91% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX?
The USL Championship match finished Monterey Bay 2:1 Sporting JAX. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX?
Monterey Bay score 1.00 goals per game on average and Sporting JAX 1.09. The USL Championship average is 2.74 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Monterey Bay's matches and 55% of Sporting JAX's.
What form are Monterey Bay and Sporting JAX in?
Over the last 5 games Monterey Bay have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Sporting JAX 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.