Monterrey vs Toluca: match statistics
Monterrey displays impressive home form with a 70% win rate and a +12 goal difference at their stadium. The hosts average 2.1 goals per home match while conceding just 0.9, providing a distinct offensive edge. Toluca, despite a solid overall record (14 wins), demonstrates weaker efficiency on the road, failing to score in 45% of matches and averaging only 1.64 goals per game. Monterrey controls 57% possession in home fixtures and boasts a superior shot conversion rate (16% vs 12%). The hosts' advantage in xG (1.51 vs 1.44) and stronger home form (wwwdwdwdww) point towards a victory, though Toluca is capable of resistance, justifying a relatively high probability of a draw.
Monterrey vs Toluca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Monterrey played Toluca in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 11 January 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Monterrey: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Toluca: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Monterrey scores 1.86 and concedes 1.62 goals per match. Toluca scores 2.17 and concedes 1.04. League average: 3.03 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Monterrey 62%, Toluca 57%. Over 2.5: Monterrey 62%, Toluca 61%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Toluca has higher xG: 1.79 vs 1.49. Monterrey: 13.0 shots per match, Toluca: 17.4.
Match halves
Monterrey: half-time lead 57%, second-half goals 0.71. Toluca: half-time lead 48%, second-half goals 1.09.
Goals by minute
Monterrey: 31-45+ (15 goals). Toluca: 16-30 (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 3.03 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 4.67, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Monterrey displays impressive home form with a 70% win rate and a +12 goal difference at their stadium. The hosts average 2.1 goals per home match while conceding just 0.9, providing a distinct offensive edge. Toluca, despite a solid overall record (14 wins), demonstrates weaker efficiency on the road, failing to score in 45% of matches and averaging only 1.64 goals per game. Monterrey controls 57% possession in home fixtures and boasts a superior shot conversion rate (16% vs 12%). The hosts' advantage in xG (1.51 vs 1.44) and stronger home form (wwwdwdwdww) point towards a victory, though Toluca is capable of resistance, justifying a relatively high probability of a draw.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Monterrey | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Toluca is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Monterrey · 1.4 pts / match - Toluca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
1.86 goals / match - Monterrey · 2.17 goals / match - Toluca
Toluca is 56% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.62 goals / match - Monterrey · 1.04 goals / match - Toluca
Monterrey scores in 90% of matches (19 of 21 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 30% (7 of 23 matches).
Toluca scores in 74% of matches (17 of 23 matches), while Monterrey keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Monterrey
Over / Under - Toluca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Monterrey is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.9 pts / match - Monterrey · 1.74 pts / match - Toluca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Monterrey - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 57% of matches and wins 52%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 48% of matches and wins 61%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (15 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Monterrey
Toluca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Monterrey | Liga | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.48 | 3.03 | ▲ 3.22 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 62% | 58% | • 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 62% | 56% | ▲ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 24% | ▲ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 95% | 74% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 78% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Monterrey 1 - 0 - 2 Toluca. Average goals 4.67, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Monterrey vs Toluca?
The Liga MX match finished Monterrey 0:1 Toluca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Monterrey and Toluca?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Monterrey won 1, Toluca won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Monterrey vs Toluca?
Monterrey score 1.86 goals per game on average and Toluca 2.17. The Liga MX average is 3.03 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 62% of Monterrey's matches and 57% of Toluca's.
What form are Monterrey and Toluca in?
Over the last 5 games Monterrey have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Toluca 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Monterrey vs Toluca?
The statistical background for Monterrey vs Toluca — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.