Monza vs Sassuolo: match statistics

Sassuolo sit 9th, while Monza are only 18th, and the visitors have scored 8 goals in four matches compared with the hosts’ 6. Sassuolo’s form is clearly more consistent: they have won 2 and suffered just 1 defeat in their last five matches, whereas Monza have lost 3 of their last 5. The visitors also create more chances, averaging 18.5 shots and 7 on target per away game, compared with Monza’s 15 and 5. Monza do average 2 goals at home, but they concede as many as 3 per match and have failed to keep a clean sheet, which, combined with Sassuolo’s away xG of 1.94, gives the visitors a genuine attacking advantage. Both teams have defensive issues, so a draw remains possible; however, the greater number of chances created and Sassuolo’s stronger recent results make them the more convincing pick.

The BTTS signal is very strong, as both Monza and Sassuolo recorded matches with goals from both sides in 100% of their games this season, with a 0% clean-sheet rate. Monza scores an average of 2.5 goals but concedes 1.5, while Sassuolo scores 1.5 goals and allows opponents 2.0 goals per match. Their attacking potential is confirmed by high xG figures: 1.73 for the hosts and 1.94 for the visitors, while Sassuolo averages 18.5 shots, including 7.0 on target. In their last five matches, BTTS occurred in 80% of Monza’s games and 100% of Sassuolo’s, with both teams conceding 2.2 and 1.6 goals per match, respectively. This is significantly above the league BTTS average of 59%, making BTTS - Yes the most likely outcome, with each team expected to score at least one goal.

The profile of both teams clearly points toward goals: all of Monza’s and Sassuolo’s matches so far have gone over 1.5 and 2.5 goals. Monza average 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Sassuolo score 1.5 and allow their opponents 2.0 goals. Over the last five matches, Monza games produced an average of 3.6 goals, compared with 3.4 for Sassuolo, while both teams conceded 2.2 and 1.6 goals per match, respectively. Their creative potential is also high, with average xG of 1.75 for Monza and 1.65 for Sassuolo, while the visitors average 18.5 shots. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: with both teams recording a 0% rate of matches below this line, the risk of a very low-scoring game remains limited.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Sassuolo were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Monza have recorded a half-time draw in 2 of 2 matches in the current home data. After the interval, the visitors’ form is more convincing: Sassuolo have averaged 1.2 goals in the second half over their last five matches, compared with just 0.4 for Monza. Sassuolo also have the better recent results record, averaging 1.6 points per match versus Monza’s 0.8, with a 40% win rate and only 20% defeats. The visitors’ attacking potential is further supported by an xG of 1.94, higher than Monza’s 1.73, while the hosts have recently conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match. The X/2 scenario best combines a cautious start with Sassuolo’s greater likelihood of completing the turnaround after half-time.