Monza vs Udinese: match statistics

Monza have a clearly better record over their last five matches: they have won 3 games, lost 2 and averaged 1.6 points per match, while Udinese have recorded just 1 win, along with 2 draws and 2 defeats. The hosts scored 8 goals during this period, 2 more than their opponents, while both teams conceded 7 goals, highlighting Monza’s advantage primarily in attack. However, the start of the current season is a limited sample: Monza lost their only match 1:4, whereas Udinese drew 1:1. Udinese sit 11th, while Monza are 19th, but the current run of results and home advantage slightly tip the balance in favour of the hosts. A closely contested match with a realistic chance of a draw is expected, but Monza’s greater efficiency across their last five outings points to a narrow victory.

The signals from the last five matches are mixed: Monza recorded BTTS in 40% of games, while Udinese did so in 60%, which provides no clear edge for a scenario in which both sides score. Over this period, both teams scored 1.6 and 1.2 goals per match respectively, but their average xG stood at just 1.41 and 0.97. Udinese therefore created less than one expected goal per game, while Monza allowed opponents 1.21 xG in their last five matches. Each team conceded an average of 1.4 goals, but the league BTTS rate is only 40%, and the average of 2.4 goals also favours results in which at least one side fails to score. The BTTS - No pick is marginally stronger, as Udinese’s lower attacking quality increases the risk of the visitors drawing a blank.

Monza’s last five matches produced an average of 3.0 goals, with the team scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4, while Udinese’s games averaged 2.6 goals, with a record of 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded. The chance-quality data is slightly more conservative: Monza’s average xG stands at 1.41 and Udinese’s at 0.97, while both defences allowed 1.21 and 1.08 xG, respectively. The 2.5 line is finely balanced, as Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of Monza’s last five matches, but in only 40% of Udinese’s games and league matches overall. The projected total of 2.50 goals leaves a clear margin below four goals, making Under 3.5 the most likely outcome at 76%.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Monza win in the match, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches and subsequently won the full-time result in 60% of those games. Monza averages 1.0 goal after half-time, while Udinese scores just 0.2 goals in second halves and has failed to win any of its last 5 such periods. The visitors are capable of starting strongly, leading at the break in 60% of their last five matches and averaging 1.0 goal before half-time compared with Monza’s 0.6, so the Udinese lead-at-half-time scenario also remains relevant. Ultimately, however, full-match form points towards the hosts: Monza has won 3 of its last 5 matches and averages 1.6 goals, compared with Udinese’s 1.2. Strictly current-season data for this HT/FT combination is very limited, so greater weight should be given to the last-five-match trend, which supports Monza improving after the break.