Moravia Morawica vs Chełmianka Chełm: match statistics

Chełmianka Chełm remain unbeaten this season, with a record of 2 wins and 0 defeats, while they have collected 11 points from their last five matches thanks to 3 wins and 2 draws. The visitors have looked particularly strong defensively: they have kept clean sheets in both of their league matches, and their only away fixture ended in a win to nil. Moravia Morawica have recorded 3 wins in their last 5 matches and scored 12 goals during that period, but their only home game ended in a 0:2 defeat. The hosts averaged 15 shots and posted an xG of 1.29 in that match, yet only 2 efforts were on target, indicating problems converting possession and territorial dominance into clear-cut chances. Given Chełmianka’s more reliable defensive profile and steadier run of results, the visitors should be considered more likely to win, although the limited sample size increases the probability of a draw.

The BTTS - No pick is supported by the very low percentage of matches in which both teams scored in the season data: 0% for Moravia Morawica and 0% for Chełmianka. Both teams have also kept a clean sheet in 100% of their available season matches, clearly indicating the risk that at least one side will fail to score. In the last five fixtures, the signal for goals from both sides is somewhat stronger but remains moderate, as BTTS occurred in 40% of matches for each team. Moravia have recently averaged 2.4 goals scored, while Chełmianka have averaged 1.6, but they have conceded just 1.0 and 0.8 goals per match respectively. The league has a BTTS average of 56%, but the combination of Chełmianka's solid defence and the limited season sample points more strongly towards a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Moravia Morawica averaged 2.4 goals scored across their last five matches, while Chełmianka Chełm averaged 1.6 goals during the same period, providing a clear basis for expecting more than two goals in the game. The hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goals per match, compared with 0.8 for the visitors, meaning neither defense has shown complete solidity in their recent run. Moravia’s matches went Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their last five appearances, compared with 40% for Chełmianka, while the combined average goals total for both teams across these runs is 2.9. Season-long data for both teams indicates that 100% of their matches finished Under 2.5 goals, but the sample is very limited and conflicts with their current scoring form. The safest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.75 goals provides a substantial margin above this line.

Moravia Morawica have averaged 2.4 goals over their last five matches, compared with Chełmianka’s 1.6, while the hosts have conceded an average of 1.0 goal against 0.8 for the visitors. The Morawica side led at the break in 67% of those matches and recorded a positive first-half goal difference of +1, whereas Chełmianka were level at half-time in 100% of their recent games. The hosts won the second half in 67% of cases, scoring an average of 1.0 goal after the break and conceding just 0.33; the visitors also scored 1.0 goal, but allowed their opponents 0.67. Neither team has lost so far this season, but Moravia have the advantage of playing at home, where the league averages 1.50 goals for the hosts compared with 1.33 for the visitors. The most likely outcome is therefore Moravia leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until the end, although Chełmianka’s strong run of half-time draws also increases the likelihood of a draw at half-time.