Moravia Morawica vs KSZO: match statistics

KSZO remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws with a 7:4 goal difference, while Moravia Morawica have lost 3 of their last 5 games. The hosts create more high-quality chances at home, averaging 1.67 xG compared with KSZO’s 1.47, and also record an average of 17 shots per match versus 14 for their opponents. At the same time, Moravia concede as many as 2.33 goals per home game and are yet to keep a clean sheet, giving the visitors a realistic chance of finding the net. However, KSZO have won none of their two away matches, with both ending in draws, although they concede just 1 goal per game on average on the road. The combination of the hosts’ attacking advantage, the visitors’ more solid form and their away run of draws points to the most likely outcome being a share of the points.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Moravia Morawica keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches, compared with 50% for KSZO. The hosts score an average of 1.67 goals, while KSZO score just 1.00 goal per match and fail to find the net in as many as 50% of their appearances. BTTS has occurred in only 33% of Moravia’s matches and 50% of KSZO’s, while over the last five league rounds, these figures were just 20% and 40%, respectively. KSZO do have an xG of 1.47, but the hosts’ strong defensive efficiency increases the likelihood that the visitors will be the team to finish the match without scoring. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically indicate a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Moravia Morawica average 1.67 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded at home, while KSZO record 1.00 goal scored and 1.00 conceded away from home. In their last five matches, both teams recorded games with at least three goals in only 40% of cases, while Morawica kept a clean sheet in 67% of their season matches. The hosts create more chances, averaging 6.5 shots on target compared with KSZO’s 3.5, but the visitors have a finishing efficiency of only 7%. High xG figures of 1.90 for Morawica and 1.47 for KSZO increase the likelihood of two goals, but the results so far do not point to regular four-goal games. Therefore, Under 3.5 has a clear advantage, as the two teams should collectively average around 2.45 goals.

The strongest signal comes from current form: KSZO have averaged 2.2 points over their last five matches, won 60% of them and remain unbeaten, while Moravia have lost three of their last five. The visitors have been starting matches very strongly, leading at the break in 60% of their recent appearances, averaging 1.0 goal before half-time and conceding none in that period; the hosts have conceded an average of 1.0 goal before the break. Moravia do have the higher season xG, 1.90 compared with 1.47, and average 6.5 shots on target against KSZO’s 3.5, but their recent defensive record stands at 1.6 goals conceded per match. The most likely scenario is therefore KSZO leading at half-time and holding that advantage through to the final whistle, although a draw at half-time followed by an away win remains an important safeguard in the HT/FT market.