Moreirense FC vs Benfica: match statistics

Benfica are clear favorites: they are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, winning 4 and scoring 16 goals, while Moreirense have recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats during the same period, scoring 4 goals. Away from home, the visitors have won all of their matches so far, averaging 7 goals scored and conceding none, whereas the hosts have only drawn at home and conceded an average of 2 goals. The difference in chance creation is substantial: Benfica average 20 shots, 8 shots on target and an xG of 2.30, compared with Moreirense’s 7 shots, 3 shots on target and xG of 0.81. The visitors also dominate possession, averaging 64% compared with 36%, while their defense allows opponents just 0.39 xG. Moreirense may capitalize on their high 29% conversion rate from their limited chances, but Benfica’s advantage in form, match control and chance quality strongly points to an away win.

Benfica boasts a very strong defense: according to the season data, they have not conceded a goal yet, kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches, and have an average xG against of just 0.39. Moreirense have scored only 0.8 goals per match in their last 5 games, with a low xG of 0.89, which significantly reduces the hosts’ chances of breaking down the opposition’s defense. The visitors, on the other hand, are highly likely to score, having averaged 3.2 goals and created chances worth 2.50 xG in their last 5 appearances, while Moreirense conceded an average of 1.6 goals. Although Benfica had BTTS - Yes in 80% of their last 5 matches, their season profile shows 0% for both teams to score and 100% of matches finishing over 2.5 goals with one side failing to score. The most likely scenario is therefore one in which Benfica find the net but Moreirense fail to respond, making BTTS - No the better choice.

Benfica are in excellent attacking form: they have averaged 3.2 goals over their last 5 matches, with an xG of 2.50. Moreirense, during the same period, scored just 0.8 goals per game and generated only 0.89 xG, limiting their contribution to the scoreline. The hosts conceded an average of 1.6 goals and allowed opponents 1.58 xG, while Benfica are on a run of four consecutive wins and have scored 16 goals in their last five appearances. Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of Moreirense’s recent matches and 80% of Benfica’s, but the visitors’ solid defense, conceding an average of 0.8 goals, reduces confidence in a high-scoring game. The strongest selection remains Over 1.5 goals, as Benfica’s attack alone has clear potential to score at least twice.

Benfica are clear favourites: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 3.2 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, while Moreirense average 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The visitors were leading at the break in 80% of their last five matches, compared with just 20% for the hosts; Benfica average 1.4 goals scored before half-time, compared with 0.6 for Moreirense. The difference is further underlined by Benfica’s defensive record, having conceded just 0.2 goals on average in the first halves of their last five matches, while Moreirense conceded 1.0. After the break, Benfica still hold the advantage, averaging 1.8 goals scored, whereas Moreirense manage just 0.2 per match during this period. The most logical scenario is therefore Benfica leading at half-time and securing victory at the final whistle: HT/FT 1/1.