Morelia vs CA La Paz: match statistics
Morelia displays solid home form with 50% wins at home and an impressive goal difference of +8 at their own stadium. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding just 3, which indicates good form. CA La Paz, despite decent form with no losses in their last 5 matches, has a weaker away record - only 30% wins and an average of 1.6 goals conceded per match on the road. Morelia outperforms their opponent in terms of xG in home matches (1.89 vs 1.43 away xG), suggesting greater offensive efficiency. The difference in home quality for Morelia and CA La Paz's tendency to draw away (50%) point to a probable home win, although a draw also remains a realistic scenario.
Morelia vs CA La Paz: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Morelia played CA La Paz in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 1 March 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Morelia: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. CA La Paz: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Morelia scores 1.42 and concedes 1.13 goals per match. CA La Paz scores 1.74 and concedes 1.79. League average: 2.92 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Morelia 46%, CA La Paz 63%. Over 2.5: Morelia 54%, CA La Paz 68%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
CA La Paz has higher xG: 1.65 vs 1.62. Morelia: 13.6 shots per match, CA La Paz: 14.2.
Match halves
Morelia: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.71. CA La Paz: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 0.74.
Goals by minute
Morelia: 76-90+ (9 goals). CA La Paz: 31-45+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.92 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Morelia displays solid home form with 50% wins at home and an impressive goal difference of +8 at their own stadium. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding just 3, which indicates good form. CA La Paz, despite decent form with no losses in their last 5 matches, has a weaker away record - only 30% wins and an average of 1.6 goals conceded per match on the road. Morelia outperforms their opponent in terms of xG in home matches (1.89 vs 1.43 away xG), suggesting greater offensive efficiency. The difference in home quality for Morelia and CA La Paz's tendency to draw away (50%) point to a probable home win, although a draw also remains a realistic scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Morelia | CA La Paz | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Morelia is 11% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Morelia · 1.8 pts / match - CA La Paz
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
CA La Paz is 23% better for: goals scored per match.
1.42 goals / match - Morelia · 1.74 goals / match - CA La Paz
Morelia is 58% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.13 goals / match - Morelia · 1.79 goals / match - CA La Paz
Morelia scores in 71% of matches (17 of 24 matches), while CA La Paz keeps a clean sheet in 26% (5 of 19 matches).
CA La Paz scores in 84% of matches (16 of 19 matches), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 38% (9 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Morelia
Over / Under - CA La Paz
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Morelia is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.63 pts / match - Morelia · 1.47 pts / match - CA La Paz
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
CA La Paz - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 32%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Morelia
CA La Paz
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Morelia | Liga | CA La Paz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.54 | 2.92 | ▲ 3.53 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 46% | 55% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 54% | 54% | ▲ 68% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 27% | • 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 74% | ▲ 89% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 79% | ▼ 68% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Morelia 0 - 0 - 1 CA La Paz. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Morelia vs CA La Paz?
The Ascenso MX match finished Morelia 1:0 CA La Paz. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Morelia vs CA La Paz?
Morelia score 1.42 goals per game on average and CA La Paz 1.74. The Ascenso MX average is 2.92 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 46% of Morelia's matches and 63% of CA La Paz's.
What form are Morelia and CA La Paz in?
Over the last 5 games Morelia have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and CA La Paz 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Morelia vs CA La Paz?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.