Morelia vs Correcaminos UAT: match statistics
Morelia displays decisively better home form with a 44% win rate and an impressive +5 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts have shown stability in their last five matches with four draws and one win, remaining unbeaten. Correcaminos UAT has very poor away results—only 14% wins, a staggering 43% loss rate, and a disastrous goal difference of -10, conceding an average of 2.57 goals per away match. xG statistics also favor Morelia (1.89 vs 1.07), and their advantage in possession (54% vs 43%) and shot efficiency confirm the hosts' dominance. Considering all parameters, Morelia should comfortably win this encounter in front of their home crowd.
Morelia vs Correcaminos UAT: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Morelia played Correcaminos UAT in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 11 January 2026. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Morelia: 1-4-0, 1.40 points/match. Correcaminos UAT: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Morelia scores 1.33 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Correcaminos UAT scores 1.14 and concedes 2.50. League average: 2.95 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Morelia 50%, Correcaminos UAT 71%. Over 2.5: Morelia 56%, Correcaminos UAT 57%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Morelia has higher xG: 1.66 vs 1.21. Morelia: 13.9 shots per match, Correcaminos UAT: 9.8.
Match halves
Morelia: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.61. Correcaminos UAT: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.93.
Goals by minute
Morelia: 31-45+ (6 goals). Correcaminos UAT: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.95 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Morelia displays decisively better home form with a 44% win rate and an impressive +5 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts have shown stability in their last five matches with four draws and one win, remaining unbeaten. Correcaminos UAT has very poor away results—only 14% wins, a staggering 43% loss rate, and a disastrous goal difference of -10, conceding an average of 2.57 goals per away match. xG statistics also favor Morelia (1.89 vs 1.07), and their advantage in possession (54% vs 43%) and shot efficiency confirm the hosts' dominance. Considering all parameters, Morelia should comfortably win this encounter in front of their home crowd.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Morelia | Correcaminos UAT | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Morelia is 75% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Morelia · 0.8 pts / match - Correcaminos UAT
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Morelia is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
1.33 goals / match - Morelia · 1.14 goals / match - Correcaminos UAT
Morelia is 88% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - Morelia · 2.5 goals / match - Correcaminos UAT
Morelia scores in 67% of matches (12 of 18 matches), while Correcaminos UAT keeps a clean sheet in 14% (2 of 14 matches).
Correcaminos UAT scores in 86% of matches (12 of 14 matches), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 33% (6 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Morelia
Over / Under - Correcaminos UAT
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Morelia is 667% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.61 pts / match - Morelia · 0.21 pts / match - Correcaminos UAT
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 33%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Correcaminos UAT - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -7 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Morelia
Correcaminos UAT
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Morelia | Liga | Correcaminos UAT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.67 | 2.95 | ▲ 3.64 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 57% | ▲ 71% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 54% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 25% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 77% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 80% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Morelia 0 - 1 - 0 Correcaminos UAT. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Morelia vs Correcaminos UAT?
The Ascenso MX match finished Morelia 3:0 Correcaminos UAT. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Morelia vs Correcaminos UAT?
Morelia score 1.33 goals per game on average and Correcaminos UAT 1.14. The Ascenso MX average is 2.95 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Morelia's matches and 71% of Correcaminos UAT's.
What form are Morelia and Correcaminos UAT in?
Over the last 5 games Morelia have a 1-4-0 record (1.40 points per game) and Correcaminos UAT 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Morelia vs Correcaminos UAT?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.