Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics
Morelia exhibits a significantly better home form with a 54% win rate at their own stadium and an impressive +9 goal difference in home matches. The hosts score an average of 1.46 goals per home match with an xG of 1.89, indicating offensive proficiency. Tepatitlán de Morelos struggles on the road – securing only 23% wins and recording as much as 54% draws, which makes them a tough, defensive-minded opponent. Another key factor is the difference in ball possession (55% vs 49%) and average shots (16.85 vs 12.69) in favor of Morelia. Given the recent form of both teams (both averaging 2 points per game in their last 5 fixtures) and the hosts' advantage on their own turf, I expect a victory for Morelia, although the visitors' high draw percentage implies the possibility of shared points. The xG stats (1.89 vs 1.55) further confirm the hosts' qualitative edge in the attack.
Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Morelia played Tepatitlán de Morelos in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 15 March 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Morelia: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Tepatitlán de Morelos: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Morelia scores 1.38 and concedes 1.12 goals per match. Tepatitlán de Morelos scores 1.30 and concedes 0.85. League average: 2.92 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Morelia 46%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 48%. Over 2.5: Morelia 54%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 37%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Tepatitlán de Morelos has higher xG: 1.65 vs 1.59. Morelia: 13.5 shots per match, Tepatitlán de Morelos: 13.9.
Match halves
Morelia: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.69. Tepatitlán de Morelos: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.70.
Goals by minute
Morelia: 76-90+ (10 goals). Tepatitlán de Morelos: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.92 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Morelia exhibits a significantly better home form with a 54% win rate at their own stadium and an impressive +9 goal difference in home matches. The hosts score an average of 1.46 goals per home match with an xG of 1.89, indicating offensive proficiency. Tepatitlán de Morelos struggles on the road – securing only 23% wins and recording as much as 54% draws, which makes them a tough, defensive-minded opponent. Another key factor is the difference in ball possession (55% vs 49%) and average shots (16.85 vs 12.69) in favor of Morelia. Given the recent form of both teams (both averaging 2 points per game in their last 5 fixtures) and the hosts' advantage on their own turf, I expect a victory for Morelia, although the visitors' high draw percentage implies the possibility of shared points. The xG stats (1.89 vs 1.55) further confirm the hosts' qualitative edge in the attack.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Morelia | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Morelia is 6% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - Morelia · 1.3 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 32% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.12 goals / match - Morelia · 0.85 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Morelia scores in 73% of matches (19 of 26 matches), while Tepatitlán de Morelos keeps a clean sheet in 33% (9 of 27 matches).
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores in 67% of matches (18 of 27 matches), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 38% (10 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Morelia
Over / Under - Tepatitlán de Morelos
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Morelia is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.54 pts / match - Morelia · 1.3 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Tepatitlán de Morelos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Morelia
Tepatitlán de Morelos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Morelia | Liga | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.50 | 2.92 | ▼ 2.15 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 46% | 54% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 54% | 54% | ▼ 37% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 27% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 62% | 73% | ▼ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 80% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Morelia 0 - 0 - 1 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
The Ascenso MX match finished Morelia 3:2 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Morelia score 1.38 goals per game on average and Tepatitlán de Morelos 1.30. The Ascenso MX average is 2.92 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 46% of Morelia's matches and 48% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's.
What form are Morelia and Tepatitlán de Morelos in?
Over the last 5 games Morelia have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.