Morelia vs Tlaxcala: match statistics
Morelia vs Tlaxcala: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Morelia played Tlaxcala in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 4 October 2026. Venue: Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Morelia: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Tlaxcala: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Morelia scores 2.00 and concedes 1.10 goals per match. Tlaxcala scores 1.80 and concedes 2.20. League average: 3.16 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Morelia 60%, Tlaxcala 80%. Over 2.5: Morelia 60%, Tlaxcala 80%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 61%.
xG, shots and style
Morelia has higher xG: 1.78 vs 1.38. Morelia: 13.9 shots per match, Tlaxcala: 10.7.
Match halves
Morelia: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 1.40. Tlaxcala: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 1.20.
Goals by minute
Morelia: 46-60 (8 goals). Tlaxcala: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 3.16 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 61%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 0.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Morelia have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding just 3, while Tlaxcala have scored 11 but conceded 8 over the same period. The home advantage is clear: the hosts have won 80% of their home games, while the visitors are yet to win away from home. Morelia average 3 goals at home with an xG of 1,90, whereas Tlaxcala concede 2,6 goals away from home with opponents’ xG at 1,47. The hosts also hit the target more often—an average of 8,4 times per match compared with 4,0 for the visitors—which strengthens their chances of exploiting Tlaxcala’s defensive weaknesses. The visitors can still pose a threat, as shown by their 11 goals in their last 5 matches, so a Morelia win is the most likely outcome, but it does not necessarily mean a clean sheet.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
In Morelia’s home matches and Tlaxcala’s away matches, both teams scored in 80% of cases, well above the league average of 56%. Morelia average 2.4 goals at home, while Tlaxcala concede 2.6 away, making a home goal highly likely. The visitors average 1.2 goals away, while Morelia concede 1.8 at home; both teams also failed to score in only 20% of these matches. Morelia’s recent defensive form warrants caution: they have conceded just 3 goals in 5 matches, and both teams scored in 40% of their games over that period. Despite this risk, the teams’ season-long results and Tlaxcala’s away average of 2.2 goals over their last 5 matches support the BTTS - Yes pick.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
At least 2 goals were scored in all included home matches for Morelia and away matches for Tlaxcala, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal. Morelia average 2.4 goals scored at home, while Tlaxcala concede 2.6 on the road, pointing to strong scoring potential for the hosts. The visitors average 1.2 goals scored away, while the hosts concede 1.8 at home; additionally, neither team kept a clean sheet in these matches. Although 80% of matches in both samples ended with at least 4 goals, combined xG of 1.57 for Morelia and 1.20 for Tlaxcala supports the more cautious choice of Over 1.5 rather than a higher line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is Morelia leading at the break and holding on to that advantage until full time: the hosts were ahead at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Tlaxcala went into the break trailing in 3 of their 5 away games. Morelia’s advantage is more pronounced after the break—they average 1.8 goals in second halves at home, while Tlaxcala concede an average of 2.0 away. Across full matches, Morelia average 2.4 goals at home compared with Tlaxcala’s 1.2 goals away, and the visitors have won none of the five away matches covered by the statistics. A half-time draw followed by a Morelia win is also a notable possibility, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their 5 home matches. However, the 1/1 pick has a slight edge, based on Morelia’s recent first-half results and Tlaxcala’s poor away form.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Morelia | Tlaxcala | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 47% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Morelia is 20% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Morelia · 2 pts / match - Tlaxcala
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Morelia is 11% better for: goals scored per match.
2 goals / match - Morelia · 1.8 goals / match - Tlaxcala
Morelia is 100% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.1 goals / match - Morelia · 2.2 goals / match - Tlaxcala
Morelia scores in 90% of matches (9 of 10 matches), while Tlaxcala keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 10 matches).
Tlaxcala scores in 80% of matches (8 of 10 matches), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 30% (3 of 10 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Morelia
Over / Under - Tlaxcala
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Morelia is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.5 pts / match - Morelia · 1.2 pts / match - Tlaxcala
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 70%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Tlaxcala - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.8 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Morelia
Tlaxcala
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Morelia | Liga | Tlaxcala | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.10 | 3.16 | ▲ 4.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 56% | ▲ 80% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 60% | 61% | ▲ 80% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 30% | 24% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 74% | ▲ 90% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 79% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Morelia 1 - 1 - 0 Tlaxcala. Average goals 0.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Morelia vs Tlaxcala?
The Ascenso MX match finished Morelia 1:1 Tlaxcala. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Morelia and Tlaxcala?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Morelia won 1, Tlaxcala won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 0.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Morelia vs Tlaxcala?
Morelia score 2.00 goals per game on average and Tlaxcala 1.80. The Ascenso MX average is 3.16 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Morelia's matches and 80% of Tlaxcala's.
What form are Morelia and Tlaxcala in?
Over the last 5 games Morelia have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Tlaxcala 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Morelia vs Tlaxcala?
The statistical background for Morelia vs Tlaxcala — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.