Moss vs Egersund: match statistics

Moss have a slight edge heading into this match, although they have won only 17% of their home games, as Egersund have lost as many as 67% of their away matches. The hosts create chances at home with an average xG of 1.63, while the visitors’ away xG stands at 1.29; Moss also average more shots on target per match, 4.92 compared with 3.67. Both teams score an average of 1.42 goals in these conditions, but Egersund’s defence concedes as many as 2.75 goals per away match, more than Moss do at home (2.17). In their last five matches, Moss scored 7 goals and collected 7 points, while Egersund netted 5 times and earned 5 points. However, the hosts’ defensive frailties and the fact that they have won only 17% of their home games limit confidence in a Moss victory.

In the last five matches involving the two teams, both sides scored in 80% of games, a strong signal in favour of BTTS - Yes. Moss conceded an average of 2.0 goals during this period, while Egersund conceded 2.6, meaning both defences are giving opponents opportunities to score. Moss average 1.58 goals at home, while Egersund concede 2.75 away from home; the visitors, meanwhile, score an average of 1.42 goals on the road, against an average of 1.33 goals conceded by the hosts at home. Caution is warranted given Moss's season BTTS rate of just 33%, compared with Egersund's 67%. However, both teams' current attacking and defensive form suggests that this time, both sides will find the net.

The strongest signal is for Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 75% of Moss matches and in every Egersund match covered by the statistics. The visitors concede an average of 2.75 goals per match, which, combined with Moss’s average of 1.58 goals scored, increases the likelihood of the hosts finding the net several times. Egersund, in turn, average 1.42 goals, although Moss have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their matches, making the visitors’ contribution to the total less certain. Across their last five matches, the teams conceded 2.0 and 2.6 goals per game respectively, while Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of their matches. Therefore, with a projected total of 3.50 goals, Over 1.5 goals offers a clearer edge than the more demanding 2.5-goal line.

Moss led at the break in 6 of 12 matches, while Egersund were trailing at half-time in 8 of 12, making a home lead at half-time the most likely individual scenario. The pre-break goal difference supports this: Moss scored an average of 1.0 goals, while Egersund conceded 1.5. The home side also have a clear advantage over the full match, averaging 1.75 points per game compared with their opponents’ 0.67, while Egersund conceded 2.75 goals per match. However, caution is warranted: Moss were trailing at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches, while Egersund led at the break in 3, increasing the possibility of a turnaround after half-time. Despite this recent change in form, Moss’s season-long first-half advantage combined with their stronger full-time results points primarily to the hosts leading both at half-time and at full-time.