Motherwell vs Celtic: match statistics

Celtic have won all 3 of their away matches so far, while Motherwell have won just 1 of their 3 home games. The visitors average 2.67 goals away from home with an xG of 2.78, whereas the hosts score an average of 1 goal at home with an xG of 1.77, pointing to a clear difference both in chance quality and finishing. Celtic average 11 shots on target per away match, compared with Motherwell's 4.67 at home; the hosts have failed to score in 67% of their home games. Celtic's defence concedes an average of 0.67 goals away from home, although its xG against stands at 1.41, so the hosts could create chances. Both teams have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, but Celtic's stronger away performances to date make an away win the preferred pick.

Celtic score an average of 2.67 goals per match, while Motherwell have conceded an average of 2.0 in their last 5 matches, making an away goal seem likely. The hosts may be harder to score against, as Celtic concede an average of just 0.67 goals per match this season, although that figure has risen to 1.6 over their last 5 games. Motherwell score an average of 1.5 goals, and their xG is 2.01, indicating a genuine chance of breaking through the opposition’s defence. Caution is warranted: BTTS - Yes has landed in 25% of Motherwell matches, compared with 67% of Celtic’s, but the visitors’ defensive decline slightly tips the forecast towards BTTS - Yes.

Celtic score an average of 2.67 goals away from home and create chances worth 2.78 xG, providing a solid basis for expecting the visitors to score. Motherwell average 1.5 goals at home from 2.01 xG, so they also have a chance to find the net. In their last five matches, Motherwell conceded an average of 2.0 goals and Celtic 1.6, although their defensive records at home and away, respectively, are better: 0.5 and 0.67 goals conceded. With a projected total of 2.75 goals, Over 1.5 goals is therefore the strongest pick; the higher Over 2.5 line offers less value, having been hit in 50% of Motherwell’s home matches and 67% of Celtic’s away matches.

A half-time draw followed by a Celtic win after 90 minutes is the most likely outcome, although the first half offers no definitive signal. Motherwell kept a clean sheet at the break in 75% of the matches covered, while Celtic failed to score before half-time in 4 of its last 5 matches, supporting a cautious draw prediction. The visitors’ advantage is clearer after the break: they average 1.67 goals in the second half compared with Motherwell’s 0.25, and won that period in all 3 matches covered. Across the full match, Celtic average 2.67 goals compared with the hosts’ 1.5, and their xG stands at 2.78 versus Motherwell’s 2.01. However, uncertainty must be factored in, as Celtic have lost 3 of their last 5 matches. As a result, the scenario of a draw at half-time followed by an away win is assigned a probability of 27%, rather than a decisive majority.