Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznań: match statistics

Lech Poznań appears to be the favorite: 14 wins this season versus Motor’s 9, 55 goals scored compared to 39, and 13 goals in the last 5 matches versus Motor’s 5. Lech’s form is also stronger on points — 2.2 points per game in the last 5 matches versus Motor’s 1.0, with Lech’s recent record 3 wins and 2 draws versus Motor’s 1-2-2. Lech creates better-quality chances: average xG on the road 1.78 versus Motor’s home xG 1.34, and on average 5.33 shots on target per match for Lech vs 3.13 for Motor. Motor, however, has home advantages — a conversion rate of 12% at home versus 8% for Lech and only 13% of home matches without a goal, plus hosts draw as many as 53% of their matches, which increases the likelihood of a shared point.

Statistics indicate a BTTS-favoring scenario: Motor Lublin has a home-season BTTS rate of 87%, while Lech Poznań has 47% away, and the league average is 59%. xG and goal analysis support this direction — Motor generates xG 2.09 and scores on average 2.4 goals at home this season, whereas Lech has xG_for_away 1.78 and scored 13 goals in the last 5 matches (avg 2.6). Motor’s defense is vulnerable (seasonConcededAVG_home 1.73 and 45 goals conceded this season), and despite Lech’s 47% clean sheets away they recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five games, which increases the likelihood of reciprocal scoring. Additionally, Motor averages 6.73 shots on target and 19.27 total shots per match with a 12% conversion, versus Lech’s 5.33 shots on target and 8% conversion, so the hosts create more chances and are likely to score. Considering Motor’s 87% BTTS, 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches between both sides, and the xG and shots averages on both sides, I assess the probability at 68% for BTTS - Yes and 32% for No.

Statistics indicate a high goal potential: Motor at home scores an average of 2.4 goals and has 93% of matches with Over 2.5 goals, while Lech away averages 1.27 goals and 47% Over 2.5. Based on xG we get 1.81 expected goals for Motor (home xG 2.09 vs opponents’ conceded xG 1.52 -> 1.81) and 1.59 for Lech (away xG 1.78 vs hosts’ conceded xG 1.41 -> 1.59), totaling approximately 3.40 expected goals. Additionally, Motor have 87% of home matches with Both Teams To Score and 67% of home matches Over 3.5 goals, while Lech has averaged 2.6 goals in the last 5 matches, which increases the chance of an over. Considering the combined xG of 3.40 is well above the 2.5 line and Motor regularly produces high-scoring home results, the strongest signal from the data is Over 2.5 goals. Over 3.5 has some support from the hosts (67%) but is riskier due to the borderline xG value.

I back 2/2 (Lech leading at half-time and winning) because Lech led at the break in 8 matches (53%) versus Motor’s 5 (33%) and has better half-time points: 30 points and a half-time points average of 2.0 compared to the home side’s 21 points and 1.4. Lech concedes on average only 0.27 goals by half-time versus Motor’s 0.73, and in the last 5 matches the visitors won 60% of games while Motor won only 20%, confirming Lech’s advantage in first halves. Motor, however, scores at home on average 2.4 goals this season and has higher home xG (2.09 vs 1.78), and also averages 1.2 goals after the break, so there is a realistic chance of a comeback and a turnaround in the second half. Therefore I assign 40% to 2/2 as the strongest scenario, while keeping significant weights on 2/X (12%) and X/2 (12%) as alternatives.