Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa: match statistics

Motor Lublin is the favorite based on form – in the last 5 matches they have a record of 3 wins and 2 draws, scored 6 goals and conceded only 2, which yields an average of 2.2 points per match. Raków Częstochowa, however, creates better chances by the numbers: away they average 5.64 shots on target, 14.5 attempts per match and xG of 1.74, but in the last 5 matches they have not won (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), scoring 8 and conceding 11, averaging 0.6 points per match. On the season level Motor at home scores 1.36 goals with xG 1.36 and concedes 1.07 goals per match (clean sheet in 43% of appearances), while Raków away records 1.57 goals, xG 1.74 and concedes 1.57 goals per match (clean sheet in only 21% of matches). This means that although Raków generates higher-quality chances (1.74 xG vs 1.36 for Motor) and more shots on target (5.64 vs 3.14), Motor’s current defensive trend – only 2 conceded goals in the last 5 matches and a lower proportion of matches without scoring (14% vs 21%) – gives the hosts the edge. Considering Motor’s 2.2 points per match versus Raków’s 0.6 in the last 5 fixtures, along with better clean sheet rate and fewer away losses for the home side (Motor loss rate 14% vs Raków away 43%), I tip a Motor victory.

Raków has a seasonal BTTS rate of 64% and 100% in the last 5 matches, while Motor has a seasonal BTTS of 46% and 40% in the last 5, which gives a clear advantage to the away-side Goal/Goal signal. Raków conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per game), whereas Motor conceded only 2 goals in those five fixtures (0.4 per game), so the visitors regularly allow opponents to score. Statistically Raków creates more chances: xG 1.74 vs 1.61 for Motor, 5.64 shots on target vs 3.92 and a higher conversion rate 11% vs 8%, increasing the likelihood they will score. Considering the league BTTS at 57% and both teams having an equal 36 goals scored this season, I tip BTTS - Yes with a confidence of 70% vs 30% for No.

Total xG values indicate an open game: Motor’s xG is 1.61 while Raków concedes on average xG 1.42 — the mean implies expected goals for Motor ≈1.52. Similarly, Raków’s xG is 1.74 and Motor concedes on average xG 1.39, implying Raków ≈1.56; the sum of expected goals is about 3.08. A Poisson model at this total yields probability of Over 1.5 ≈81% and Over 2.5 ≈59%, consistent with seasonal Over 1.5 rates: 62% (Motor) and 79% (Raków) and Over 2.5: 31% and 57%. Additionally, Raków have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 per game) while Motor have conceded 2 goals in their last 5 (0.4 per game), and Raków’s matches show 64% BTTS on the season and 100% in the last 5 fixtures, which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Therefore I recommend taking the Over at the 1.5 line as the strongest signal from the available data.

I back 1/1 (Motor leading at half-time and winning) because the hosts have 3 wins in their last 5 matches (60%) versus Raków’s 0 wins (0%), and Motor led at the break in 3 of those 5 matches (60%) compared to Raków’s 1 of 5 (20%). In those five games Motor averaged 1.0 goals by half-time (6 goals total) and conceded 0.2 goals by half-time, whereas Raków averaged 0.2 goals by half and conceded 0.8, which favors the hosts after 45 minutes. Season-long figures show Raków with higher xG (1.74 vs 1.61) and a higher goals-per-game average (1.57 vs 1.08), but in their last 5 matches Raków conceded an average of 2.2 goals, so the season offensive edge is mitigated by poor recent form. Additionally, Motor has kept a clean sheet in 38% of season matches versus Raków’s 21% and has been statistically stronger in first halves recently; therefore the strongest signal is Motor to lead at the break and hold on for the win (1/1).