MSV Duisburg vs Saarbrucken: match statistics
MSV Duisburg displays impressive home form with a 69% win rate and only one defeat in home matches this season. The hosts score an average of 2.08 goals per home game, with a 15% conversion rate and a favorable goal difference of +14. Saarbrücken, on the other hand, performs poorly away, winning just 7% of matches and conceding an average of 1.57 goals, coupled with a negative goal difference of -8. The visitors' recent form is better (5 matches unbeaten), which could increase the probability of a draw. The hosts' xG advantage (1.75 vs 1.44) and home dominance clearly favor MSV Duisburg; however, Saarbrücken's solid recent form suggests the visitors could put up resistance and lead to a close result.
MSV Duisburg vs Saarbrucken: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
MSV Duisburg played Saarbrucken in 3. Liga (Germany). The match was played on 8 March 2026. Final score: 4:2.
Current form
MSV Duisburg: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Saarbrucken: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
MSV Duisburg scores 1.74 and concedes 1.22 goals per match. Saarbrucken scores 1.37 and concedes 1.41. League average: 3.10 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: MSV Duisburg 63%, Saarbrucken 67%. Over 2.5: MSV Duisburg 63%, Saarbrucken 44%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Saarbrucken has higher xG: 1.59 vs 1.52. MSV Duisburg: 12.4 shots per match, Saarbrucken: 13.0.
Match halves
MSV Duisburg: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.00. Saarbrucken: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
MSV Duisburg: 61-75 (11 goals). Saarbrucken: 0-15 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
3. Liga: 3.10 goals per match, BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
MSV Duisburg displays impressive home form with a 69% win rate and only one defeat in home matches this season. The hosts score an average of 2.08 goals per home game, with a 15% conversion rate and a favorable goal difference of +14. Saarbrücken, on the other hand, performs poorly away, winning just 7% of matches and conceding an average of 1.57 goals, coupled with a negative goal difference of -8. The visitors' recent form is better (5 matches unbeaten), which could increase the probability of a draw. The hosts' xG advantage (1.75 vs 1.44) and home dominance clearly favor MSV Duisburg; however, Saarbrücken's solid recent form suggests the visitors could put up resistance and lead to a close result.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| MSV Duisburg | Saarbrucken | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Saarbrucken is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - MSV Duisburg · 1.8 pts / match - Saarbrucken
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
MSV Duisburg is 27% better for: goals scored per match.
1.74 goals / match - MSV Duisburg · 1.37 goals / match - Saarbrucken
MSV Duisburg is 16% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.22 goals / match - MSV Duisburg · 1.41 goals / match - Saarbrucken
MSV Duisburg scores in 78% of matches (21 of 27 matches), while Saarbrucken keeps a clean sheet in 15% (4 of 27 matches).
Saarbrucken scores in 74% of matches (20 of 27 matches), while MSV Duisburg keeps a clean sheet in 33% (9 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - MSV Duisburg
Over / Under - Saarbrucken
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
MSV Duisburg is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.44 pts / match - MSV Duisburg · 1.26 pts / match - Saarbrucken
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
MSV Duisburg - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Saarbrucken - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 26%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
MSV Duisburg
Saarbrucken
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3. Liga).
Teams vs league
| MSV Duisburg | Liga | Saarbrucken | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.96 | 3.10 | ▼ 2.78 |
| Both teams scored | • 63% | 63% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 63% | 63% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 22% | ▼ 15% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 76% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 83% | ▼ 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: MSV Duisburg 0 - 1 - 0 Saarbrucken. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of MSV Duisburg vs Saarbrucken?
The 3. Liga match finished MSV Duisburg 4:2 Saarbrucken. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before MSV Duisburg vs Saarbrucken?
MSV Duisburg score 1.74 goals per game on average and Saarbrucken 1.37. The 3. Liga average is 3.10 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 63% of MSV Duisburg's matches and 67% of Saarbrucken's.
What form are MSV Duisburg and Saarbrucken in?
Over the last 5 games MSV Duisburg have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Saarbrucken 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for MSV Duisburg vs Saarbrucken?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for MSV Duisburg vs Saarbrucken: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.