Mtibwa Sugar vs Dodoma Jiji: match statistics
Mtibwa Sugar vs Dodoma Jiji: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mtibwa Sugar played Dodoma Jiji in Ligi kuu Bara (Tanzania). The match was played on 6 May 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Mtibwa Sugar: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Dodoma Jiji: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mtibwa Sugar scores 0.80 and concedes 1.20 goals per match. Dodoma Jiji scores 0.90 and concedes 1.05. League average: 2.01 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mtibwa Sugar 50%, Dodoma Jiji 30%. Over 2.5: Mtibwa Sugar 40%, Dodoma Jiji 40%. League level: BTTS 34%, Over 2.5 36%.
xG, shots and style
Dodoma Jiji has higher xG: 1.10 vs 0.94. Mtibwa Sugar: 3.4 shots per match, Dodoma Jiji: 5.2.
Match halves
Mtibwa Sugar: half-time lead 5%, second-half goals 0.45. Dodoma Jiji: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Mtibwa Sugar: 76-90+ (7 goals). Dodoma Jiji: 31-45+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligi kuu Bara: 2.01 goals per match, BTTS 34%, Over 2.5 36%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I forecast a Mtibwa Sugar win (1). Mtibwa record a 45% win rate at home and average 1.18 goals per home match, while Dodoma Jiji win only 11% of away fixtures and average 0.67 goals on the road. Finishing efficiency favors the hosts: Mtibwa’s home conversion is 16% with 18% of matches without a goal, whereas Dodoma convert at roughly 7% and have 44% of away matches goalless. In the last 5 matches Mtibwa have scored 3 and conceded 10 (2.0 conceded per match on average), while Dodoma have scored 4 and conceded 6, indicating better short-term defensive stability for the visitors. Overall, taking into account the home advantage in finishing and win-rate and the visitors’ poor offensive efficiency away, I assess probabilities at 60% for the home side, 25% for a draw and 15% for the away team.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I favor the 'No' scenario (at least one team fails to score) with 70% probability vs 30% for 'Yes'. Mtibwa Sugar has a seasonal BTTS of 18% and keeps a clean sheet in 64% of matches, while Dodoma Jiji posts a 44% BTTS and only 22% clean sheets, which points to a limited scoring threat from the visitors. Seasonal goal averages are 1.09 scored and 0.73 conceded for the home side, and 0.67 scored and 1.44 conceded for the away side; additionally home xG is 1.06 vs away xG 1.19, but the visitors’ shot conversion is only 7% versus 14% for the hosts, so the away team converts chances far less often. In the last 5 matches the hosts conceded on average 2.0 goals with BTTS 60%, and the visitors conceded 1.2 goals with BTTS 20%, introducing short-term uncertainty but contradicting the seasonal profile. Considering the hosts’ seasonal 64% clean sheets, the league BTTS rate of 33% and the very low away conversion rate of 7%, the 'No' scenario appears more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model combines the home xG of 1.06 with the away defense (Dodoma concedes 1.45 xG), yielding a 1.26 goal projection for Mtibwa; likewise the away xG of 1.19 against the home defense of 0.95 gives 1.07 for Dodoma, totaling 2.33. Seasonally Mtibwa scores 1.09 and concedes 0.73 on average, Dodoma scores 0.67 and concedes 1.44, while the league averages 2.0 goals per match — this supports a 2–3 goal tendency. Season Over 1.5 rates are 64% for Mtibwa and 56% for Dodoma, consistent with the calculated Over 1.5 probability of ~68%; Over 2.5 rates are 45%/33% and the model estimates ~41% chance to exceed 2.5. Additionally Mtibwa converts shots to goals more efficiently (conversion 14% vs 7% for Dodoma) and has a high clean sheet rate of 64%, while Dodoma posts 22% clean sheets and BTTS 44% — creating asymmetry but not reducing the projected total. Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (over): projected total 2.33 and aligned seasonal indicators imply ~68% probability of at least two goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Statistical analysis favors Mtibwa Sugar: the hosts led at the break in 5 matches (50%), whereas Dodoma Jiji did not lead at halftime in any (0%). The hosts average 0.6 goals by half-time versus 0.25 for the visitors and concede only 0.2 goals in the first half compared to 0.5 for their opponents; combined with the season averages of 1.09 goals scored and 0.73 conceded at home versus 0.67/1.44 for the away side, this gives them a clear offensive and defensive advantage. Additionally, the hosts have higher finishing efficiency (14% conversion vs 7%) and keep clean sheets more often (64% of home matches versus 22% for the visitors), which reduces the likelihood of relinquishing a lead. On this basis the most likely and strongest signal is a home lead at the break and a home win at full-time (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mtibwa Sugar | Dodoma Jiji | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Dodoma Jiji is 150% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Mtibwa Sugar · 1 pts / match - Dodoma Jiji
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Dodoma Jiji is 13% better for: goals scored per match.
0.8 goals / match - Mtibwa Sugar · 0.9 goals / match - Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.2 goals / match - Mtibwa Sugar · 1.05 goals / match - Dodoma Jiji
Mtibwa Sugar scores in 60% of matches (12 of 20 matches), while Dodoma Jiji keeps a clean sheet in 45% (9 of 20 matches).
Dodoma Jiji scores in 55% of matches (11 of 20 matches), while Mtibwa Sugar keeps a clean sheet in 30% (6 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mtibwa Sugar
Over / Under - Dodoma Jiji
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Dodoma Jiji is 100% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.7 pts / match - Mtibwa Sugar · 1.4 pts / match - Dodoma Jiji
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mtibwa Sugar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 5% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Dodoma Jiji - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mtibwa Sugar
Dodoma Jiji
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligi kuu Bara).
Teams vs league
| Mtibwa Sugar | Liga | Dodoma Jiji | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.00 | 2.01 | • 1.95 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 34% | ▼ 30% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 40% | 36% | ▲ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 30% | 41% | ▲ 45% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 65% | 54% | ▼ 45% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 65% | 60% | • 60% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Mtibwa Sugar 0 - 1 - 0 Dodoma Jiji. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mtibwa Sugar vs Dodoma Jiji?
The Ligi kuu Bara match finished Mtibwa Sugar 0:1 Dodoma Jiji. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mtibwa Sugar vs Dodoma Jiji?
Mtibwa Sugar score 0.80 goals per game on average and Dodoma Jiji 0.90. The Ligi kuu Bara average is 2.01 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 36% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Mtibwa Sugar's matches and 30% of Dodoma Jiji's.
What form are Mtibwa Sugar and Dodoma Jiji in?
Over the last 5 games Mtibwa Sugar have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Dodoma Jiji 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mtibwa Sugar vs Dodoma Jiji?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.