Mtibwa Sugar vs Mbeya City: match statistics
Mtibwa Sugar presents decidedly better home form with 67% wins and an impressive +3 goal difference, remaining unbeaten at home this season. The hosts show solid offensive efficiency (1.33 goals per match) and defensive stability (0.33 goals conceded per match, 67% clean sheets). Mbeya City, on the other hand, is in dismal form, losing 4 of their last 5 matches and earning just 0.2 PPG in recent outings. The visitors have poor away stats: 67% losses, a negative -4 goal difference, and 67% of matches without scoring. The clear advantage in expected goals (xG: 1.1 vs 0.89 for the visitors) and possession (54% vs 41%) further supports a confident victory for the hosts.
Mtibwa Sugar vs Mbeya City: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mtibwa Sugar played Mbeya City in Ligi kuu Bara (Tanzania). The match was played on 21 January 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Mtibwa Sugar: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Mbeya City: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mtibwa Sugar scores 0.56 and concedes 0.56 goals per match. Mbeya City scores 0.60 and concedes 1.30. League average: 1.72 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mtibwa Sugar 22%, Mbeya City 10%. Over 2.5: Mtibwa Sugar 11%, Mbeya City 30%. League level: BTTS 25%, Over 2.5 25%.
xG, shots and style
Mbeya City has higher xG: 1.03 vs 0.99. Mtibwa Sugar: 3.9 shots per match, Mbeya City: 5.3.
Match halves
Mtibwa Sugar: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.22. Mbeya City: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.30.
Goals by minute
Mtibwa Sugar: 0-15 (2 goals). Mbeya City: 16-30 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligi kuu Bara: 1.72 goals per match, BTTS 25%, Over 2.5 25%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Mtibwa Sugar presents decidedly better home form with 67% wins and an impressive +3 goal difference, remaining unbeaten at home this season. The hosts show solid offensive efficiency (1.33 goals per match) and defensive stability (0.33 goals conceded per match, 67% clean sheets). Mbeya City, on the other hand, is in dismal form, losing 4 of their last 5 matches and earning just 0.2 PPG in recent outings. The visitors have poor away stats: 67% losses, a negative -4 goal difference, and 67% of matches without scoring. The clear advantage in expected goals (xG: 1.1 vs 0.89 for the visitors) and possession (54% vs 41%) further supports a confident victory for the hosts.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mtibwa Sugar | Mbeya City | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 49% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mtibwa Sugar is 500% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Mtibwa Sugar · 0.2 pts / match - Mbeya City
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mbeya City is 7% better for: goals scored per match.
0.56 goals / match - Mtibwa Sugar · 0.6 goals / match - Mbeya City
Mtibwa Sugar is 132% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.56 goals / match - Mtibwa Sugar · 1.3 goals / match - Mbeya City
Mtibwa Sugar scores in 33% of matches (3 of 9 matches), while Mbeya City keeps a clean sheet in 30% (3 of 10 matches).
Mbeya City scores in 30% of matches (3 of 10 matches), while Mtibwa Sugar keeps a clean sheet in 56% (5 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mtibwa Sugar
Over / Under - Mbeya City
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mbeya City is 49% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.67 pts / match - Mtibwa Sugar · 1 pts / match - Mbeya City
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mtibwa Sugar - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Mbeya City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mtibwa Sugar
Mbeya City
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligi kuu Bara).
Teams vs league
| Mtibwa Sugar | Liga | Mbeya City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.11 | 1.72 | ▲ 1.90 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 22% | 25% | ▼ 10% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 11% | 25% | ▲ 30% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 56% | 46% | ▼ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 44% | 41% | ▲ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 33% | 53% | ▲ 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of Mtibwa Sugar vs Mbeya City?
The Ligi kuu Bara match finished Mtibwa Sugar 2:1 Mbeya City. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mtibwa Sugar vs Mbeya City?
Mtibwa Sugar score 0.56 goals per game on average and Mbeya City 0.60. The Ligi kuu Bara average is 1.72 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 25% of games. Both teams score in 22% of Mtibwa Sugar's matches and 10% of Mbeya City's.
What form are Mtibwa Sugar and Mbeya City in?
Over the last 5 games Mtibwa Sugar have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Mbeya City 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mtibwa Sugar vs Mbeya City?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Mtibwa Sugar vs Mbeya City: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.