MVV vs RKC Waalwijk: match statistics
MVV vs RKC Waalwijk: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
MVV played RKC Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 3 April 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
MVV: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. RKC Waalwijk: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
MVV scores 1.18 and concedes 2.00 goals per match. RKC Waalwijk scores 1.70 and concedes 1.52. League average: 3.19 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: MVV 55%, RKC Waalwijk 76%. Over 2.5: MVV 64%, RKC Waalwijk 67%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
RKC Waalwijk has higher xG: 1.66 vs 1.29. MVV: 11.3 shots per match, RKC Waalwijk: 14.8.
Match halves
MVV: half-time lead 12%, second-half goals 0.70. RKC Waalwijk: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 0.85.
Goals by minute
MVV: 76-90+ (9 goals). RKC Waalwijk: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eerste Divisie: 3.19 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
RKC Waalwijk is the paper favorite: they have scored 56 goals this season versus MVV’s 39, and in the last 5 matches they have 11 goals compared to MVV’s 7. The visitors generate higher-quality chances — RKC’s away xG for is 1.61 with xG against 1.36, while MVV at home has xG for 1.34 and xG against 1.86, indicating a greater likelihood of clear-cut opportunities for RKC. Defensively MVV performs worse: they concede an average of 1.88 goals per home match (66 conceded this season), while RKC concedes 1.44 on the road (50 this season) and have 19% clean sheets versus MVV’s 13%. Additionally RKC attempt more shots (14.5 average and 4.88 on target away) than MVV (12.5 and 3.5), and in form RKC have 3 wins in their last 5 and average 2.0 points per game versus MVV’s 1.2. On this basis I predict an away win; suggested probability split is 18% home, 24% draw and 58% for RKC.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
A strong BTTS signal stems from seasonal statistics: MVV has BTTS at 82%, RKC 69%, and both teams are 80% in the last 5 matches, which strongly supports both teams scoring. Both sides create goals — average goals scored 1.65 for MVV and 1.75 for RKC, xG 1.71 vs 1.61, and average shots 15.12 vs 14.5 with shots on target 5.24 vs 4.88 confirm real offensive threat. Defensively MVV is vulnerable to goals: conceding 1.59 per season and 2.2 on average in the last 5, while RKC concedes 1.44 seasonally (last 5: 1.4), which increases the likelihood that the home side will concede and both teams will score. Low clean sheet rates — 18% for MVV and 19% for RKC — and a high share of matches over 2.5 goals (65% and 69%) further support the BTTS scenario. Based on this I rate BTTS 'Yes' 80% vs 20% 'No' as the best pick, because the combination of 82%/69% seasonal BTTS, 80% in the last 5 matches and MVV's weaker defense gives a stronger signal for both teams to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams create and concede a lot of chances: MVV scores on average 1.65 goals with xG 1.71, RKC scores 1.75 with xG 1.61; xG against are 1.45 (MVV against) and 1.36 (RKC against), yielding expected xG of 1.54 for the home side and 1.53 for the away side (total 3.07). Seasonal percentages of matches over 1.5 goals are 94% (MVV) and 88% (RKC), and BTTS percentages are 82% and 69%, so Over 1.5 looks highly likely and I assign it 92%. The 2.5 line also has solid justification: season over 2.5 is 65% for MVV and 69% for RKC (avg ~67%), and in the last 5 matches RKC had 100% over 2.5 and MVV 60%, therefore I estimate ~68% for Over 2.5. The 3.5 line is less certain: season over 3.5 is 35% (MVV) and 44% (RKC), avg ~39%, and the projected total xG 3.07 is below 3.5, so Under 3.5 has the edge. The strongest play is Over 1.5 (recommendation: Over 1.5) due to very high seasonal rates 94%/88% and the expected 3.07 goals in the match.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
In the season MVV led at the break in 8 matches (47%) and scored an average of 0.88 goals by half-time, while RKC led in 7 matches (44%) with a seasonal half-time average of 0.81 goals. However, form over the last 5 fixtures clearly favors RKC: the visitors led at the break in 3 of 5 (60%) and averaged 1.2 goals by half-time, whereas MVV had 0 of 5 (0%) and 0.4 goals by half-time. Over the full match the seasonal averages are 1.65 goals for MVV versus 1.75 for RKC, and xG is 1.71 for the home side versus 1.61 for the visitors, indicating similar offensive potential but a form trend in favor of RKC. Additionally, RKC excel after the break: 94% of their matches have at least one goal in the second half and they win 38% of second halves, while MVV have 76% of matches with second-half goals and only 18% second-half wins, indicating an advantage for the visitors in the decisive portion of the match. Considering RKC’s 60% rate of leading in the last five and 60% win rate in those five, the most likely scenario is 2/2 (visitors leading at half-time and winning Full-Time).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| MVV | RKC Waalwijk | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
RKC Waalwijk is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - MVV · 2 pts / match - RKC Waalwijk
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
RKC Waalwijk is 44% better for: goals scored per match.
1.18 goals / match - MVV · 1.7 goals / match - RKC Waalwijk
RKC Waalwijk is 32% better for: goals conceded per match.
2 goals / match - MVV · 1.52 goals / match - RKC Waalwijk
MVV scores in 61% of matches (20 of 33 matches), while RKC Waalwijk keeps a clean sheet in 18% (6 of 33 matches).
RKC Waalwijk scores in 91% of matches (30 of 33 matches), while MVV keeps a clean sheet in 12% (4 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - MVV
Over / Under - RKC Waalwijk
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
RKC Waalwijk is 107% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.82 pts / match - MVV · 1.7 pts / match - RKC Waalwijk
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
MVV - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 12% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
RKC Waalwijk - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 39%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -4 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (18). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
MVV
RKC Waalwijk
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eerste Divisie).
Teams vs league
| MVV | Liga | RKC Waalwijk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.18 | 3.19 | • 3.21 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 55% | 62% | ▲ 76% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 64% | 63% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 12% | 21% | ▼ 18% |
| Goal before half-time | • 76% | 77% | ▲ 85% |
| Goal after half-time | • 85% | 85% | • 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: MVV 0 - 0 - 1 RKC Waalwijk. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of MVV vs RKC Waalwijk?
The Eerste Divisie match finished MVV 1:3 RKC Waalwijk. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before MVV vs RKC Waalwijk?
MVV score 1.18 goals per game on average and RKC Waalwijk 1.70. The Eerste Divisie average is 3.19 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 55% of MVV's matches and 76% of RKC Waalwijk's.
What form are MVV and RKC Waalwijk in?
Over the last 5 games MVV have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and RKC Waalwijk 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for MVV vs RKC Waalwijk?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.