MVV vs Roda JC: match statistics

MVV enter the match as the second-placed team, with a perfect record of 4 wins this season, while Roda JC have recorded 2 wins, a draw, and a defeat. The hosts have won both of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding just 0.5, whereas the visitors score only 0.5 goals per away game and have failed to find the net in 50% of such matches. MVV also show superior finishing efficiency, converting 14% of their shots into goals compared with Roda’s 5%, while averaging 4 shots on target per match. Roda JC produce slightly more shots on target, at 4.5, but their away xG stands at 1.09, while their defence allows opponents an xG of 1.54—higher than MVV’s attacking figure of 1.31. The hosts’ stronger run of form, including 4 wins in their last 5 matches, combined with a clear home advantage, points to an MVV victory.

BTTS - Yes is supported by the high league average, as both teams score in 79% of Eerste Divisie matches, with an average of 3.79 goals per game. MVV average 2.0 goals at home and have both scored and conceded in every match played in this venue so far, while Roda JC have an xG against of 1.54. However, Roda JC present a mixed seasonal picture: they score just 0.5 goals per away game, but have improved this figure to 1.2 goals across their last five appearances, with an xG of 1.31. The hosts have kept no clean sheets, and their average of 1.5 goals conceded at home increases the visitors’ chances of finding the net. Additionally, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, making a goal for each side more likely than BTTS - No, which means that at least one team fails to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither team scores.

MVV average 2.0 goals per home match and create chances worth 1.76 xG, while Roda JC concede an average of 1.54 xG away from home. The hosts also record 15.0 shots, including 7.5 on target, compared with Roda’s 9.5 shots and 4.5 on target, clearly strengthening the case for at least two goals. In their last five matches, the teams averaged 1.6 and 1.2 goals respectively, while both recorded games finishing Over 2.5 goals in 60% and 40% of cases. The league is highly goal-oriented, averaging 3.79 goals per match with 74% of games finishing Over 2.5 goals, although Roda’s more cautious away profile reduces confidence in a high over. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.83 goals provides a solid margin above this line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an MVV win at full-time, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five matches. During this period, each side averaged just 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded before the break, which supports an even opening. After the interval, MVV won 60% of their matches, averaged 1.0 goal, and are on a run of 4 wins in their last 5 appearances, while Roda JC won only 20% of second halves. The hosts also have greater attacking potential: their xG stands at 1.76 compared with the visitors’ 1.09, while their average number of shots on target is 7.5 against Roda’s 4.5. Roda JC score an average of just 0.5 goals away from home, so after a more cautious first half, MVV are more likely to turn the result in their favour.