Myawady vs Yadanarbon: match statistics

Yadanarbon sit 4th and remain unbeaten this season, while 10th-placed Myawady have managed just 1 point from 2 matches so far. In their last 5 games, the visitors have won twice and conceded 6 goals, whereas the hosts are still without a win and have conceded as many as 14. Myawady have yet to score at home, averaging just 1 shot on target per match; Yadanarbon average 3.5 shots on target and score 1 goal per game away from home. The gap in the quality of chances created is reflected in the visitors’ away xG of 1.56, compared with the hosts’ home xG of 0.76. A draw remains possible, as Yadanarbon drew 1 of their 2 away matches so far, but Myawady’s problems in attack and defence point towards an away win.

In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 80% of Myawady’s games and 60% of Yadanarbon’s, supporting a BTTS - Yes pick. Over this period, each team averaged 1.2 goals per match, while Myawady conceded as many as 2.8, making the visitors’ chances of scoring look solid. The hosts also have grounds to find the net: Yadanarbon conceded an average of 1.2 goals recently, and opponents created chances worth an average of 1.88 xG against them. Yadanarbon’s away record adds some uncertainty, as they failed to score in 50% of their away matches. However, the teams’ recent form and the league BTTS rate of 57% tip the assessment in favour of BTTS - Yes.

Myawady’s last five matches averaged 4.0 goals, while Yadanarbon’s averaged 2.4. Myawady conceded 2.8 goals per game over this period, which, alongside Yadanarbon’s average of 1.2 goals scored, strengthens the case for goals from the visitors. The prospect of a high-scoring game is also supported by Over 2.5 goals landing in 5 of Myawady’s last 5 matches and 3 of Yadanarbon’s last 5. However, I’m backing Over 1.5 as the stronger pick: the 3.35-goal forecast gives this line a higher probability than Over 2.5, while the short sample of recent matches does not justify an equally confident selection of the higher line.

The strongest signal is a Yadanarbon lead at the break followed by a win: Myawady have not won any of their last 5 matches and have conceded an average of 2.8 goals, while the visitors have won 2 matches and conceded an average of 1.2 goals. Myawady were trailing at half-time in 2 of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 1.6 goals before the break, while Yadanarbon did not once go into half-time trailing during that period. The visitors also won 1 of the 2 matches included in their season statistics, holding either a draw or a lead at half-time in both. Myawady losing the second half in 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 of Yadanarbon's 5, further supports the prospect of the visitors maintaining their advantage. A half-time draw remains a significant alternative, as both teams recorded one in 3 of their last 5 matches, but the hosts' weaker defence tips the choice towards 2/2.