NAC Breda vs MVV: match statistics
NAC Breda vs MVV: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
NAC Breda played MVV in Eerste Divisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 9 October 2026. Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
NAC Breda: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. MVV: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
NAC Breda scores 2.11 and concedes 2.11 goals per match. MVV scores 1.44 and concedes 2.11. League average: 3.63 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: NAC Breda 89%, MVV 67%. Over 2.5: NAC Breda 89%, MVV 67%. League level: BTTS 71%, Over 2.5 68%.
xG, shots and style
NAC Breda has higher xG: 2.19 vs 1.26. NAC Breda: 21.8 shots per match, MVV: 10.2.
Match halves
NAC Breda: half-time lead 56%, second-half goals 1.11. MVV: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.89.
Goals by minute
NAC Breda: 76-90+ (6 goals). MVV: 76-90+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eerste Divisie: 3.63 goals per match, BTTS 71%, Over 2.5 68%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
NAC Breda have the edge in chance creation at home, averaging 2.47 xG and 7 shots on target per match, while MVV average 1.24 xG and 3.5 shots on target away from home. The hosts score an average of 2.25 goals at home, while the visitors concede as many as 3.25 goals away, pointing to a NAC win. The last five matches also suggest the hosts have the advantage: they have scored 12 goals and collected 7 points, compared with MVV’s 5 goals and 4 points. However, the risk of an upset remains considerable, as NAC concede an average of 2.25 goals at home and MVV score 1.75 goals per match on the road. Despite MVV’s higher league position—5th compared with NAC’s 9th—the hosts’ advantage in chance quality and recent finishing gives them the better chance of winning.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS has landed in 100% of MVV’s away matches and in each of NAC Breda’s last 5 games, a strong indicator that both teams can score. NAC have recently averaged 2.4 goals per match, while MVV have conceded 3.0, making a goal from the hosts particularly likely. The visitors average 1.75 goals away from home, while NAC have conceded an average of 2.4 in their last 5 matches, giving MVV a realistic chance to respond. Caution is warranted, however, as NAC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their home games and MVV have recently averaged just 1.0 goal. Even so, the combination of the hosts’ current scoring form and the visitors’ away effectiveness points to BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
NAC Breda have scored and conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game across their last 5 matches, with each of those games producing at least 3 goals. MVV have conceded an average of 3.0 goals recently, while the Over 1.5 goals line has landed in 100% of their away matches. In addition, NAC have scored in 80% of their home games, while MVV have found the net in 100% of their away matches, increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. With a projected total of 3.3 goals, Over 1.5 goals offers value; it is a stronger pick than Over 2.5, as NAC’s home matches have cleared the higher line in only 40% of cases.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely outcome is a draw at half-time and a NAC Breda win at the final whistle: the hosts were level at the break in 4 of their 5 home matches, while MVV were level at half-time in 2 of their 4 away games. After the break, NAC won 60% of their home halves, whereas MVV lost 50% of their away halves, conceding an average of 2 goals in those matches. The case for a home win at full-time is further supported by MVV conceding an average of 3.25 goals away from home, compared with 1.2 goals conceded by NAC at home. NAC leading at the break remains a significant alternative, as the team was ahead after 45 minutes in 4 of its last 5 matches overall. Despite this recent run, frequent draws in NAC’s home matches give X/1 a slight edge over 1/1.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| NAC Breda | MVV | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
NAC Breda is 75% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - NAC Breda · 0.8 pts / match - MVV
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
NAC Breda is 47% better for: goals scored per match.
2.11 goals / match - NAC Breda · 1.44 goals / match - MVV
NAC Breda scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while MVV keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 matches).
MVV scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while NAC Breda keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - NAC Breda
Over / Under - MVV
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
NAC Breda is 34% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.78 pts / match - NAC Breda · 1.33 pts / match - MVV
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
NAC Breda - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 56% of matches and wins 44%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
MVV - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.8 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -8 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
NAC Breda
MVV
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eerste Divisie).
Teams vs league
| NAC Breda | Liga | MVV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.22 | 3.63 | • 3.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 89% | 71% | ▼ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 89% | 68% | • 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 16% | ▲ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 80% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 84% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of NAC Breda vs MVV?
The Eerste Divisie match finished NAC Breda 1:0 MVV. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before NAC Breda vs MVV?
NAC Breda score 2.11 goals per game on average and MVV 1.44. The Eerste Divisie average is 3.63 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 68% of games. Both teams score in 89% of NAC Breda's matches and 67% of MVV's.
What form are NAC Breda and MVV in?
Over the last 5 games NAC Breda have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and MVV 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for NAC Breda vs MVV?
The statistical background for NAC Breda vs MVV — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.