Nacional Asunción vs Deportivo Recoleta: match statistics
Nacional Asunción vs Deportivo Recoleta: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nacional Asunción played Deportivo Recoleta in Division Profesional (Paraguay). The match was played on 12 October 2026. Venue: Estadio Arsenio Erico. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Nacional Asunción: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Deportivo Recoleta: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nacional Asunción scores 1.46 and concedes 0.86 goals per match. Deportivo Recoleta scores 1.40 and concedes 1.66. League average: 2.44 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nacional Asunción 57%, Deportivo Recoleta 71%. Over 2.5: Nacional Asunción 40%, Deportivo Recoleta 66%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 45%.
xG, shots and style
Nacional Asunción has higher xG: 1.35 vs 1.29. Nacional Asunción: 12.4 shots per match, Deportivo Recoleta: 11.7.
Match halves
Nacional Asunción: half-time lead 34%, second-half goals 0.83. Deportivo Recoleta: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Nacional Asunción: 76-90+ (15 goals). Deportivo Recoleta: 46-60 (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Division Profesional: 2.44 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 45%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 7 previous H2H matches were available: 2-3-2. Average goals 2.29, BTTS 57%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nacional Asunción are favourites: they have won 65% of their home matches, while Deportivo Recoleta have lost 71% of their away games. The hosts average 1.76 goals scored and 0.65 conceded at home, whereas the visitors score 1.12 and concede as many as 1.82 goals on the road. Nacional’s edge in chance creation is reflected in their home xG of 1.40, compared with Recoleta’s away xG of 1.12; the visitors also allow opponents chances with an average xG of 1.65. Nacional are unbeaten in their last five matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding 4, while Recoleta have won just once and conceded 7. Although the hosts’ three consecutive draws increase the likelihood of a stalemate, their home form and the visitors’ poor away defensive record point to a Nacional win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Nacional Asunción have seen both teams score in 83% of their matches, compared with 59% for Deportivo Recoleta and a league average of 53%. The hosts score an average of 1.67 goals, while the visitors concede 1.82, clearly favoring a Nacional goal. Recoleta’s chances of scoring are supported by the fact that Nacional keep a clean sheet in only 11% of matches and allow opponents chances worth an average of 1.59 xG. Caution is warranted, however, as Recoleta failed to score in 29% of their matches and have averaged just 1.0 goals across their last five. Even so, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their respective last five matches, so the BTTS - Yes option has the edge.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Nacional score an average of 1.67 goals per match, while Deportivo Recoleta concede 1.82, giving the home side a solid foundation to find the net. The visitors also have a chance to score: they average 1.12 goals, while Nacional concede 1.50, and their opponents have scored in 89% of matches. At least two goals were scored in 89% and 76% of these teams’ matches, respectively—significantly more often than at least four goals, which occurred in 33% and 41%. Nacional’s last five matches produced an average of 2.4 total goals, as did Deportivo’s, so despite a projected total of 2.90 goals, Over 1.5 goals remains the safest pick.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Nacional were level at the break in 44% of their matches, compared with 53% for Deportivo Recoleta; in the visitors’ last five matches, the figure was 80%. Although Nacional led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, this occurred in only 22% of their matches over the season, so I rate an early lead for the home side slightly below a draw. After half-time, the advantage shifts in their favour: Nacional average 1.11 goals after the break, while Deportivo concede 1.24. Nacional won the second half in 56% of their matches, while Deportivo lost it in 53%, supporting the scenario of the match being decided after the interval. The home side’s average of 1.67 goals scored against the visitors’ 1.12 also points to a full-time win for Nacional, so my HT/FT pick is a draw at half-time and a Nacional win at full-time.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nacional Asunción | Deportivo Recoleta | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nacional Asunción is 700% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Nacional Asunción · 0.2 pts / match - Deportivo Recoleta
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nacional Asunción is 93% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.86 goals / match - Nacional Asunción · 1.66 goals / match - Deportivo Recoleta
Nacional Asunción scores in 86% of matches (30 of 35 matches), while Deportivo Recoleta keeps a clean sheet in 14% (5 of 35 matches).
Deportivo Recoleta scores in 83% of matches (29 of 35 matches), while Nacional Asunción keeps a clean sheet in 37% (13 of 35 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nacional Asunción
Over / Under - Deportivo Recoleta
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nacional Asunción is 27% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.49 pts / match - Nacional Asunción · 1.17 pts / match - Deportivo Recoleta
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nacional Asunción - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 34% of matches and wins 46%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Deportivo Recoleta - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +11 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nacional Asunción
Deportivo Recoleta
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Division Profesional).
Teams vs league
| Nacional Asunción | Liga | Deportivo Recoleta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.31 | 2.44 | ▲ 3.06 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 52% | ▲ 71% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 45% | ▲ 66% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 37% | 28% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 69% | 65% | ▲ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 81% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Deportivo RecoletaSubstitutionOn: Thiago Constantino Emmanuel Vidal ObregónOff: Aldo Walmor González Román
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (7): Nacional Asunción 2 - 3 - 2 Deportivo Recoleta. Average goals 2.29, both teams scored in 57% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nacional Asunción vs Deportivo Recoleta?
The Division Profesional match finished Nacional Asunción 1:0 Deportivo Recoleta. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional Asunción and Deportivo Recoleta?
In the last 7 head-to-head matches Nacional Asunción won 2, Deportivo Recoleta won 2 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 2.29 goals, with both teams scoring in 57% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nacional Asunción vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Nacional Asunción score 1.46 goals per game on average and Deportivo Recoleta 1.40. The Division Profesional average is 2.44 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Nacional Asunción's matches and 71% of Deportivo Recoleta's.
What form are Nacional Asunción and Deportivo Recoleta in?
Over the last 5 games Nacional Asunción have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Deportivo Recoleta 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nacional Asunción vs Deportivo Recoleta?
The statistical background for Nacional Asunción vs Deportivo Recoleta — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.